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Goodwood proved that it's extremely hard to get a run if you're bogged down near the rail, as De Sousa found out on Orbaan. It's hard to say whether Orbaan would've won or not as there was plenty of running left to do, but Orbaan was hard on the bridle whilst every other horse in the race was at work, so I'd have liked to have thought he would have gone close.
Tom Marquand threw the form book out the window on Socialite. Considering the horse has been a front runner on every start of his career so far, and has been successful at doing so, Tom said no thank you and held him up towards the rear. I don't understand why he did that, maybe because the horse was uncontrollable last time out, but I am a big believer of not fighting a horse, as it's only going to see one winner and it's never the jockey. The Gosden horse who won did get to the front and didn't see another rival, which makes the ride on Socialite even more frustrating.
Starlust didn't have the gears to get competitive in a very fast run King George Stakes. He is a horse to follow as I think he will win some big pots at some stage.
Cairnzy's Tips
Free Wind 5/2 – Goodwood 3.00
Despite a lack of success at the Goodwood festival since Tuesday, I had planned to skip the final day on Saturday. However, since Saturday is the last day, I've decided to give it one more try in the hopes of recouping some of our losses.
The Gosden-trained mare is the highest-rated horse in the field at 114, making her a worthy favourite in the current betting market. My selection, however, boasts an impressive resume, having won a Group 3 race and multiple Group 2 contests in the last year. Her narrow defeat to Warm Heart last season in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks is another solid piece of form to add to her tally of efforts.
Free Wind returned to the track in May when attempting to defend her crown in the Middleton Stakes at York. She could only manage second place on that occasion, which wasn't a bad effort on the back of a 208-day layoff. Bluestocking who won the race has since bolstered the form, winning the Pretty Polly Stakes and finishing second in the prestigious King George at Ascot last weekend behind the French raider Goliath, who was a shock-priced winner at 25/1.
Jehangeer SP EW – Goodwood 4.10
This is another cracking race, but it looks like a tricky puzzle to solve with plenty coming here with solid claims. There are quite a few in this field that I like, In particular, Qirat from the Beckett yard, who I feel has another big handicap win in him this season. I finally decided on Jehangeer, who was actually a recent winning selection from me on the Lucky 15 thread. He's marked up at 6/1 currently, but I feel he may drift a tad, so I'll chance my arm on this occasion and advise as an SP EW chance. If he shortens to anything under 5/1, then of course go straight to win.
Jehangeer showed improved form at Thirsk last month after being gelded and undergoing a breathing operation. He had previously finished third on his handicap debut and seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in May. Although he looked uncomfortable with the early pace, Jehangeer found his stride down the straight and finished strongly to win by a length and a quarter. He is up 5lb for that recent success which asks a further question of him but he remains completely unexposed at 7f, and this step up in trip looks a good move given how strong he finishes of his races.
Rizzel's Tips
Al Aasy 7/2 – Goodwood 1.50
When the field is a small one, you've always got to be concerned about how it will unfold, as it will be a tactical race. Going from what we know, I'd expect Callum Shephard to go forward on Phantom Flight and make this into a couple of furlong sprint. He won on his first start for his new yard, but I think Al Aasy can confirm the form over the last couple of years and cruise past him over today's longer trip.
This race isn't particularly great, and I think the oldest horse in the race, Al Aasy is still the best horse. He is now a 7-year-old but showed there's life in the old lad still when finishing a fast finishing second to Phantom Flight in a race which was a crawl. Al Aasy has already been ahead of Phantom Flight on a couple of occasions from last year at Newmarket but was behind the same horse at Newbury last time out, but the position of both horses proved crucial. Phantom Flight followed the winner and managed to get the jump on my selection, with the sectional proving this as well. Al Aasy clocked the final four furlongs in a quicker time than the winner, but due to the nature of the race and it being a sprint finish, it didn't suit the Haggas horse.
Both of the horses I've named were making their return to the track. Jim Crowley opted for Al Aasy's ownermate, which is an insight that Al Aasy wasn't 100% for the race, and I'd be confident in that being the case. The winner was making his first start in 300+ days for a new stable, so could also have needed the run, but with that horse finishing behind my selection on more than one occasion before when both fit I struggle to see how he is now a better horse, even with Al Aasy being a 7-year-old.
The others in this race do not concern me. Lion's Pride's form would concern me if he was effective on the turf, but from the looks of it based on last time (when a selection for the thread) he is much better on the AW.
Fairbanks 7/2 – Goodwood 2.25
I am going to be sticking to an old winning selection of mine with Fairbanks to land this Coral Sumer Handicap Class 2.
Fairbanks has been a very progressive horse, winning 5/8 handicaps and last time out when stuck up as a selection he bounced back to form after a lacklustre performance the time before. His latest win at Newmarket was his first attempt at 1m 6f and though he was tiring towards the end, he excelled for the step up. He was very free going at Newmarket, which made the performance even better as he just kept rolling and had many of the other horses off the bridle a fair way from home, yet Oisin was sat quiet onboard Fairbanks, and when he asked him to accelerate and win his race, he did it in a matter of strides.
I think Goodwood will suit him well, as it does suit quicker types and at this trip, he has to be up there with being the speediest in this race. Getting to the front might be an issue from Stall 9, but the way Oisin was riding Goodwood yesterday, I have 100% faith that he'll have his horse in the correct spot. Oisin had a couple of winners yesterday and even the horses he didn't win on, they went very close.
The handicapper gave Fairbanks a 6lb hike in the weights for his recent win, though that makes it a much tougher task, I thought he had quite a bit to spare at Newmarket in a race which saw him do a fair bit wrong by being too keen in front, so if he settles better I think he can overcome the higher handicap mark.
I said it would happen.
Today’s tips aimed at “recouping some of our losses”.
This is what happens with points, ones judgement can be clouded by past losses.
Each day should be a new chapter, a bright new dawn, without the millstone of yesterday hanging over us.
elvis, what substance do you have to your argument? yesterday they put up some each way selections which they have both been successful with in the past, quite normal given two festivals are on at present. it is only your mind linking their losses to their prices yesterday, is it not? to suggest they are punting bigger prices to recoup losses after two weeks is wumming surely.
you imply the issue you have is that tracking points is offsetting their selection process??? these two are not relying on this cash to feed themselves, lives are not on the line, if anything being -20 would make them revert to short prices, most of cairnzy’s winners will be below 3/1, 3 of those and he is effectively back, so not sure there was a need for your comment given it isn’t based on fact.
the point tracking is pointless yes, being -20 may put people off when they put up a 12/1 winner, but it is handy to see how well they are doing over the month and year period. they can post a lot of losers but having tracked all of 2024, i can see why people get frustrated, but on balance they often aren’t far off break even which is fair enough for tipping every day with day jobs. but that is why a detailed spreadsheet would be interesting, as you can check how their horses ran, and then perhaps follow through a season and recoup losses next time. for instance rizzel put up DINONS when it PU’d then it won shortly after, they are good shortlist horses that you can monitor.
this place is just a tip dumping ground and always has been. readers will extract the bets they trust and we move on, but again the paid headliners sharing the combined points once a week affects nothing.
@Elvis
What on earth are you talking about?? You mentioned this on yesterday’s post as well. We are posting 7 days a week for 99% of the year, I’m not a believer of your view of “just post and hope for the best and take one day at a time” and most tipsters on every other platform don’t take that view either.
In regards to your “I said this would happen” comment about recouping loses. There’s a difference between trying to recoup loses and chasing loses. Chasing loses is going of course from your staking plan (upping stakes) and placing more bets in the hope that one lands to claw back what you’ve lost previously. Of course myself and Rizz want to try recoup some of what we’ve lost? It may mean something as simple as taking a different approach to what we’ve been doing . Wanting to recoup doesn’t mean we are chasing, so you’ve again got that completely wrong.
You used the fact we posted some larger odd selections as a way of saying we are chasing. Again, utter nonsense. Especially if you take into account we are tipping in a tough festival such as Glorious Goodwood that has thrown up big priced winners all week. 16s, 12s and 25s are three that spring to mind from yesterday. Absolutely nothing wrong with taking an each way angle into a contest, you need a lot of luck in running at Goodwood and although it’s not an excuse for all selections it has been the case for some. Orbaan in particular who was backed from 16s into 8s and was cruising on the bridle but never got an out. Not saying he would have won but he would have gone close in my opinion.
This thread is honking with negativity recently, the worse I’ve seen it in a while. It’s got to the point with some people that it’s not even negativity and it’s simply trolling. I’m not putting yourself in that category of trolling but certainly adding fuel to the fire in terms of negativity. You’ve stated your opinion on the points system and L15 thread on multiple occasions now, move on from it. I refuse to believe a small change in the introduction of a lucky 15 thread is the reason why a handful of people have flooded thread with nonsense either. People don’t acknowledge the winning selections ( not that I care about a pat on the back ) but are quick enough to jump on and slate losing form. Baffling and if losing money on selections is enough for people to jump on and slate someone then you’re clearly losing money that you can’t afford to lose in the first place.
O dear, I seem to have hit a raw nerve here.
My point is today’s picks should be about today’s potential winners and not previous losses which you refer to above.
@Elvis
Not a raw nerve, just replying to complete nonsense and stating the obvious in what you’ve said in the previous few posts (directed at us) makes no sense.
I’ve typed you out a reply above, that you seem to want most of the time as you continue to throw out your fishing rod with negativity as your bate with the hope of a bite. You’ve point blanked avoided anything I’ve said in the above and simply repeated yourself. Tells me all I need to know.
Can’t understand for the life of me why you can’t just post your selections and have a laugh with the lads who you interact with in the comments.
Rather aggressive aren’t we.
It’s complete nonsense to you but not me, it’s opinions, it’s what make us human innit.
And I do interact on the forum and have a laugh with the lads/lasses, always have, always will.
I get the feeling you are one of those who is always right, always has the last word on a topic of discussion.
Anyway I’ll let you carry on digging your own hole with this points system and for the sake of the thread won’t comment on it again, that’s a promise….
@Elvis
It’s a bit hypocritical Elvis to say I’m coming across aggressive, when you are the one who has continued to pop your sly digs in at us for the past 4 weeks, despite saying on multiple occasions that you are going to leave the issue alone.
Of course you are entitled to your opinion, I’ve mentioned on multiple occasions that I’ve always respected your views on racing and have enjoyed plenty a debate and discussion with you surrounding the sport. But this is past having an opinion now, it’s constant remarks about things you’ve said you’ll stop talking about.
I’m far from the type of person who has to have the last say on a topic, hence why I’ve tried my best to not get involved when Ive been reading these negative comments over the past month or so. But at the end of the day, I have to defend myself at some point, especially if it’s been an on going issue.
I know you interact well with those in the comments, I’m not arguing that. My point is, I hope you can stop with the sly remarks regarding the changes you arnt a fan off and move on. Not commenting on the thread is last thing I want, as I’ve stated above I’ve enjoyed plenty a discussion with you surrounding racing.
Cairnzy1878 – it’s why i stopped coming on here much. Trolling/ negativity.. just ruins it
@WinnersareGrinners
I’ve never seen you comment before mate, but don’t be a stranger due to other people’s comments.
If you enjoy racing and fancy a horse then pop it in the comments and of course have a bit of craic along the way.
Always good to see a new face pal ?
? ? ??
Charles town -Racec7..Socual Chic 11/4 **+
Coral etc
NR ⬆️
Noticed the negativity myself this week and I don’t even read the comments on here apart from when I post my stats. Didn’t realise it was so bad after looking back a few days pages on here. I’m not one to sit around while people are being trolled/bullied so I’m going to take a week or so off from sharing my stats as my own little protest.
Growing up as a kid I was told almost daily to show kindness to others and even those who are unkind to you. I actually have compassion for them as they don’t mean it its just their conditioning in life ( they could have been through a traumatic experience for all we know), so they vent their frustration at others, but deep down they’ll be nice guys im sure of that.
I’ll just give a stat for today I’m sure most will have spotted it. Michael Dods sends only one runner to Goodwood today. As I keep barking on about he has one of the best level stakes profit in the UK when sending only one runner to a meeting. He actually has a 67% strike rate at Goodwood over the last 5 seasons with 4 winners from 6. I have literally no clue about the race I’m not even going to attempt to go through a field that size. Got to be worth 50p at big odds
Also tomorrow he does the same again at Haydock with Educating Rita. I’ve had this bet lined up and will likely be my only bet over the weekend. Impressed last time stepped up in trip. Up 7lb for it. Will likely go top 2 at around 11/8 with a smaller stake on at 100/30.
Protest ???
What am I going to do without your tips for a week?? My life is ruined ? ?
Hibee1 – don’t protest ?
I only pop by the pages now and then but followed you this week and you’ve picked come crackers ? thank you!
Poor old Elvis ?
Albasheer 12 /1 ew 6 places. 3.35 Goodwood
Should have won at RA but made up for it lto. 6lbs higher but extra furlong on this course should be ideal.
Baltic Bird 15/2 ew 5 places 2.30 Galway
Ran well here in Mondays big h’cap so in good form and should run well providing Mondays race hasn’t taken too much out of him.
Dragon of Malta 4/1 4.50 Galway
Won race last year and back down to last year’s mark now. Obviously all part of the plan. Trainer very selective where his horses run. It’s his only runner at the festival.
BOL
G 1.50 Lions Pride
G 2.25 Align The Stars
G 3.00 Melo Melo
G 4.10 Cuban Tiger
BOL
Why do I always get moderation .
Great week so far at Goodwood and Galway for me. Hopefully it continues today.
Ew lucky 15 today
The X O 3.35 good @ 40s
Sanitiser 5.20 good @ 50s
Palo Duro 5.25 Gal @ 25z
Cruyff Turn 4.30 Thir @ 33s
GL
Palo Duro NR. ( There’s a lot today)
Replaced with Dream escape @ 25s
Not today ?
haitza 12.05 France well done all winners yesterday thought. I’d come on the boxing thread for a moment theer
hecky thump
ruby emery 12.40 ew france
phantom flight 1.50
Fairbanks 2.25
Really fancy Al Aasy myself.
Free Wind too but on..
Al Aasy 1.50pm 10/3 Skybet
It’s there money back if 2nd offer so that be best way to go I’d say.
GL folk
??
The class horse there Rizzle ‘auld’ Al Aasry ?
Although i was going to back it as he’s in my tracker your write up made perfect sense so i decided it would be my main bet for the UK ??
It could have been easier, well done but to Jim Crowley
??
Saratoga -Race 3…Deck Of Cards 2/1 Coral ****+
In my tracker/notes and they notes were
“dwelt then finished well to beat a good horse coming round the bend to sprint away by 9-10 Lengths ”
It turns out it was only 7L but I think horse will take the step up in class again no problem and the
Trainer and jockey combo are 3 wins from 4 but over the last year when stepping up to this grade to the grade they have put thete horse in again. Clearly they team up when trainer thinks he’s a decent one on there hands?
Race 8..Weans And Means 11/8 ****
Race 12…Audacious 9/2 ***+
Just for a Yankee I’d go National Treasure at 7/4 in Saratoga Race 12 who just keeps repelling any talk of lighter raced horses stepping up to her grade and winning. This a slight ease to so 7/4 definitely worth putting in an Acca
GL yoll ?
Klondike 4-40 deauville 3-1
Haggas sends just this one over for this ordinary looking group 3.
Wouldn’t back it on its recent firm but haggas has supplemented it for this race which suggests he thinks it’s winnable.
Soumillon on board a plus.
———————————————-
Moor malpic 5-15 deauville 9-1 ew 3 places.
Well done Elvis nice one . Would never of seen this If you did nt post it up ??? and less off the negativity and childish comments ???? goblets of piss all round !!!
Hello
Galway Festival
R. – 5 Elzem / Win
R. – 6 Louiescall / Ew
R. – 7 Belles Feuilles / Ew
R. – 8 Artic Piper / Ew
See you at the Final ,, BOL !!
I think
The expert Tipper here , be more quite ?
Who get paid for there tips .
I don”t want see your Roi , afte 3 – 4 Months or a Year . !!
??
Fields fell apart so 5/1 been nice but this horses debut run with ANY improvement was a really good shout before all on the NRs
Saratoga – Race 1…Reach For Rose. 6/5 Skybet *****
Nice winner aye dazzler ??
Don’t make childish comments dazzman, just say what I think, not a crime, well maybe in labour run UK now it might be ?.
Think you’ll find negativity is usually deemed that by those who disagree with your point of view.
I’m 61, bald and am counting the days down until I can stop delivering all your pesky parcels ?.
Once that happens I will be a bastion of joy ??
Yeah another 20 years and you ll be dead so better make make the most of it and 10 of those will be spent sleeping and dribbling so in reality you only have 10 years left on earth ? put a stamp on your bald head and chuck you in the ground ?
Temper trap 6-10 Hamilton goes for a repeat win in this race, well a very repeat win.
He’s won this race the last 4 years and goes for number 5 today.
It’s a diabolical field so could well do it, but it’s odds on and as such a no bet.
Just thought it will be some fest to achieve this feat
He finished 2nd.
The odds on curse strikes ?
@ Juicin ?
why you still here , when its a dumping ground ?
For you again , follow the right guys here !!
Who is juicin Mr horse ?