It wasn’t to be for Tommie Gun yesterday, though once again, market support meant that we beat the closing line, and comfortably. Being ahead of the curve in that sense is only a positive in the long run.
| Newmarket - 14:17 |
Encourageable |
8/1 |
On Saturday, there is some interesting racing at a variety of venues, but I’m primarily interested in a race at Newmarket, where Encourageable makes plenty of appeal ahead of the 14:17.
In the early betting, recent hat-trick hero Tribal Chief has been installed as the favourite and he’s quite a decent one at that, though he’ll need to pull out more to win what is clearly a better race. From higher in the weights, I’m not convinced he’ll do that. Waiting All Night is next in the market and is to be respected on the strength of his relatively recent C&D success, but he too may just be handicapped out of it at this stage.
The one in this field that remains with potential and who is still yet to be fully exposed is Encourageable, who comes here for his relatively small-time trainer, but we’re talking about a trainer who has had a winner recently, so I wouldn’t discount him on that basis.
Well handicapped on his return to a mile
Having had wind surgery and 419 days off, this is a horse that has been very lightly campaigned in recent times, returning from that sizable lay-off to run respectably (fourth) at Haydock in late September, before taking a clear step in the right direction to finish a close-up second over seven furlongs at Leicester last time out, staying on well at the death.
If anything, I’d argue that his most recent race contained a bit more depth than this, so it’s not an effort to ignore, especially as he performed as though this step back up to a mile would suit him down to the ground.
Clearly well handicapped at present, the gelding sits 6 lbs below his last winning mark. His last win came at this level at Thirsk back in September 2022.
At the end of the day, I really wouldn’t be surprised if he stepped forward and won this. There’s enough to suggest that he’s capable of taking a contest of this nature, and as far as I’m concerned, with him ranking top-of-the-pile for last-time-out speed ratings, he’s got a better chance than odds of 8/1 suggest.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 54 Naps) has a running P/L of +£30.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
In December 2020 we sadly 
