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Yesterday’s Nap was a disappointing one, with Jupiter Allen failing to take another step in the right direction. Hopefully Saturday brings a turnaround in fortunes.
| Sandown - 14:25 |
Spirit D'anou |
11/1 |
There’s certainly no shortage of racing on Saturday, and as is always the case on the busiest day of the week, narrowing it down to just one bet is never the easiest task. Ahead of this Saturday’s action, I’ve landed on Spirit D’aunou, who if nothing else, looks quite generously priced in the early betting.
A serious player at Sandown, the gelding won this race last year, while he’s since proved that he can get competitive from slightly higher marks, so is 11/1 a bit too big? I’d certainly say so.
Has optimum race conditions at his preferred venue
Two wins from three runs at Sandown, it’s fair to say that the gelding enjoys running at the Surrey venue, and as touched on above, he landed this prize 12 months ago.
Sure, he’s now 4 lbs higher in the weights than when taking this last year, but he’s 2 lbs lower than when finishing a not-far-away fifth in a much deeper race at the Aintree festival back in April. Repeat that sort of run and he absolutely won’t be far away here.
He fell when reappearing at Ascot back in November, but his inclusion here tells me that he’s not worse off for that, while he ought to appreciate the ground this time. From six runs on soft or worse, he’s got three wins to his name, two of which came over course and distance.
The Gary & Jamie Moore yard has been in solid form of late, while it’s definitely fair to say that they do OK at Sandown.
It must also be said that this horse tends to go very close when racing under certain conditions, conditions that he has today. These conditions are: racing over a distance of two miles, from a mark of 135 or less, producing five wins, one place and one fall.
I’ll sign off by saying that given the facts, 11/1 is too big and should be taken by those who seek value for money, it’s as simple as that.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 71 Naps) has a running P/L of +£35.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
