Hardy Du Seuil ran a cracker yesterday, finishing a nose out of the places and just three lengths off the winner of a race that he was sent off at 33/1 for. Naturally, being so close, it was a little disappointing not to pick up what would’ve been some decent place money, but he certainly outran his price-tag.
| Haydock - 13:20 |
Nordic Tiger |
16/1 |
On Saturday, I’m interested in the third race at Haydock, a Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs. The horse in focus is Nordic Tiger, who rates as the best runner in here, though at 16/1, he’s priced as anything but, and I’m just not sure that’s right.
Still lightly raced, there’s definitely a chance that we’ve not quite seen this six-year-old reach his ceiling, while he comes into this contest off the back of a respectable reappearance run (following 221 days off) at Doncaster.
Has the form to make his presence felt in a race of this nature
Twice a winner over hurdles around this time last year, Harry Derham’s gelding has one win and one second to his name in Class 4 handicap races. His mark has risen since his last win, naturally, but that effort last time didn’t exactly create the impression that his current rating is too stingy, while he’ll effectively race off just 1 lb above his last winning mark once we factor in Megan Fox’s 7 lb claim.
It’s also worth mentioning that his reappearance race was a Class 3, from which a couple have since gone on to run well at that level again, while one of the horses he beat has since gone on to finish third in a graded contest. Such form is far from irrelevant ahead of what is definitely a lesser event.
Moreover, if we look back to his final performance in the spring, when he won with a staying-on effort over a furlong less at Southwell, we’re again reminded that he’s kept slightly better company than this. The horse he narrowly beat on that occasion has since gone on to win a Class 3.
I’m also not going to ignore the fact that Harry Derham is a trainer with an eye-catching strike rate of 42.86% at Haydock. Sure, that strike rate has been achieved from just seven runners, but three winners and a place from those seven tells me that this is a trainer who knows how to prepare one for a test at the Yorkshire venue.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about a less-than-fully-exposed type, who ought to step forward on his reappearance in what is an easier race. For my money, all of the positives here mean that 16/1 is just too big. Such odds offer clear value for money as far as I’m concerned.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 84 Naps) has a running P/L of +£35.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
