Since Monday’s 9/1 winner it’s been a bit of a tricky week, with a couple of no-shows and a few big-priced runners performing well, but not quite well enough to land the spoils. Saturday now comes calling once more.
| Chelmsford - 17:25 |
Mokaatil |
16/1 |
There’s an evening meeting at Chelmsford that I’m interested in, chiefly because the 17:25 race, a six furlong handicap of the Class 6 variety, catches my eye. Why does it catch my eye? Put simply, this race is of interest because the Ian Williams’ trained Mokaatil looks far too generously priced in the early betting.
Not heavily involved at Kempton last time out, the nine-year-old has dropped slightly in the weights and is not to be dismissed back at Chelmsford, where he ran a cracker under Saturday’s very handy claiming jockey on his penultimate start.
A horse to take seriously with Millie Wonnacott in the saddle
Young jockey Millie Wonnacott, who has an eye-catching 40% strike rate for Ian Williams in 2024, has struck up something of a serious rapport with this horse, winning twice on him at Chepstow back in the summer, while she’s since been in the saddle for a third-place finish at Lingfield, before riding a close-up third over course and distance earlier this month.
On that occasion, he was perhaps left with a little too much on his plate before doing plenty of promising late work, keeping on to finish third, beaten less than a length by a winner that would rate right at the top of this contest. If anything, this race looks a little easier, at least in terms of strength in depth.
Ian Williams is a trainer who has hit some form of late, which is a plus, while the gelding also rates very highly in this field based on two different sets of speed figures.
A wide draw is perhaps a slight negative, but given the hefty early price, that’s not enough to put me off, not at all.
Looking at what the others tend to do, there ought to be a decent early pace to this contest, which will also suit, and with plenty of other clear positives, odds of 16/1 absolutely represent value for money as far as I’m concerned. Will such a price be available nearer to post time? I’m not so sure.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£10.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
In December 2020 we sadly 
