Friday’s Nap Take Your Time certainly took his time. In fact, he took far too much time and was never seriously involved. Back to the drawing board.
| Wolverhampton - 19:00 |
Maids Head |
11/2 |
On Saturday, I’m interested in an all-weather runner at Wolverhampton. Ahead of the race due to take place at 19:00, Maids Head catches my eye. Having finished third after a break last time out, the Marco Botti filly could quite easily take a step in the right direction here, and if she does that, she ought not to be far away when the race gets serious.
Unexposed sort has hinted at having the ability to win a race such as this
We’re talking about an unexposed runner, who has had just six starts, and let’s be honest, she’s certainly performed as if a run-of-the-mill Class 5 handicap would be within grasp before long.
There was little wrong with that seven-furlong effort at Kempton last time out. Following a lay-off of 107 days, the filly more than held her own in a better race than this. A mere repeat of that effort would likely see her go close, while any improvement, which seems far from out of the question, would see her lay down a very serious challenge indeed.
Prior to her Kempton reappearance, she finished third at Southwell, again running in a slightly better contest than this. She was beaten a short head by a runner that day that has since gone on to place in a better race than this from a mark of 73. This shouldn’t be ignored.
She’s not without course and distance experience either, with the three-year-old finishing second over C&D back in November. She did so from just 1 lb lower in the handicap, running in a race that contained a little more depth than this, which for my money, is a plus. The winner of that contest is now rated 75. The highest rated runner here is rated 68.
Well drawn for a trainer that has had a couple of winners recently, the unexposed and potentially improving filly has shown more than enough to suggest that this is very much a winnable race, so much so that odds of 11/2 are worth taking. I’m not convinced that such odds reflect her chances accurately enough. In other words, there’s value to be had as far as I’m concerned.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 104 Naps) has a running P/L of -£58.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
GambleAware