Sizable Sam certainly outrun those chunky odds on Thursday, running a very bold race to take third. Well done if you played each way. However, the search for the next winner goes on. Let’s see what Saturday brings.
| Ascot - 15:35 |
Fiercely Proud |
12/1 |
As is always the case on a Saturday, when the action is at its best and most plentiful, narrowing it down to a single bet can be tough, but from a value point of view, as far as I’m concerned, Fiercely Proud, who runs in the final race at Ascot, is the best bet of the day.
A faller when reappearing over course and distance back in November, there was arguably more promise to his effort than the bare result showed at Cheltenham last time out, so I really wouldn’t be surprised if he got a little more competitive than early odds of 12/1 may have us believe.
The conditions of this race may just be perfect
Before we tackle why the race conditions look spot on, it’s worth saying that his seasonal reappearance effort wasn’t without promise, despite that fall. The gelding appeared to be travelling with purpose when a poor jump took the wind out of his sails three from the finish.
He returned to the track just 15 days later, showing no ill effects when running on well from a mile back in the hugely competitive Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. That effort tells me that he could very easily go closer now that he swims in slightly calmer waters, especially as he should now have arrived at something like optimum race readiness.
Based on that latest effort, a mark of 128 looks far from out of reach, especially given that he’s now going right-handed, which looks to be his preference. It also must be noted that when running at Listed level or worse, in fields no bigger than 14, he has four wins from five runs.
If we factor in that Ben Pauling has a pleasing Ascot record, winning with 20% of his runners at the Berkshire venue in 2024, then odds of 12/1 really do start to look on the chunky side.
To be honest, I shouldn’t think it’ll be long before the relatively unexposed and potentially well handicapped gelding starts laying down serious challenges in contests of this nature, and with 12/1 on offer, I’m betting that he can do just that on Saturday.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 75 Naps) has a running P/L of -£5.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
