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When last in action with the Nap of the Day (Wednesday), it wasn’t to be as Cloud Dancer ran modestly (at best), plugging on for a never-nearer fourth. Onwards and upwards.
| Haydock - 15:40 |
Dare To Shout |
17/2 |
Back at it on Saturday, where the Nap races at Haydock. The horse in question is lightly-raced chaser Dare To Shout, who runs in the 15:40, an extended three-mile-one-furlong handicap of the Class 2 variety.
Far from aggressively campaigned over the smaller obstacles, winning a decent Class 3 handicap at Hexham last October, the seven-year-old has made a pleasing start to life over fences and there could still be more to come.
Step back up in trip could bring about more improvement
For just the second time in his career, and for the first time over fences, the gelding will go beyond three miles. More on that shortly. First, it’s worth mentioning that he's made a solid start to life as a chaser, returning from a 176-day break to finish second on debut at Hexham.
Following that promising debut, he took a sizable step in the right direction just under three weeks ago, winning well at Carlisle. On the basis of that effort, a mark of 132 may be a little lenient. He quite easily beat 131 and 132 rated runners that day, and there’s only four runners rated above that in here, so he’s absolutely worthy of his place. Given that he’s heavily unexposed over fences, he might just prove to be worthy of more than just a place in the line-up.
Let’s face it, he’s easily the least exposed over fences in here, which is not something to overlook. What’s more, not only is he unexposed over fences, but he’s unexposed over this sort of distance.
His only previous effort beyond three miles saw him finish a close-up and staying-on second in a competitive hurdle race over three miles and two furlongs at Kelso back in March. On that evidence, this distance could easily help him to produce his best effort yet over fences.
Trainer Ann Hamilton also has some interesting stats, boasting a career win rate of 20.21% in the month of November, while since 2021, she has a 40% strike rate at Haydock.
It’s also interesting that seven of the last 14 winners of this race came into the contest having won a chase last time out. This lad is one of just two last-time-out chase winners in the field.
Ultimately, we’re talking about a very lightly raced runner, one who performed as if there was more to come last time out, while a case can clearly be made for this increase in distance playing to his strengths. Throw in some eye-catching trainer stats (and cracking race trend) and odds of 17/2 become well worth taking as far as I’m concerned.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 66 Naps) has a running P/L of +£85.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
Snow given all over the country today will any racing go ahead!