Well, yesterday’s bet was another disappointing one, making it two no-shows in quick succession. Onto Saturday and it’s a good one too, with some excellent races taking place at Sandown, including the Imperial Cup.
| Sandown - 14:25 |
King William Rufus |
22/1 (each way, 5 places) |
The Imperial Cup is the race that I’ve landed on today, and at a decent price, I like the look of King William Rufus, who for several reasons, could quite easily outrun his early price tag of 22/1. At such odds, with five places on offer, Chris Gordon’s runner rates as a great each-way bet in my book.
Last time out, despite the race not really being run to suit, the gelding delivered a decent effort in a rather competitive affair at Newbury, finishing sixth (of 17). Dropped 1 lb by the handicapper since, the eight-year-old, who boasts the best career speed-rating of this bunch, could easily improve on that.
Should appreciate the drying ground
The horse last won on ground that was good-to-soft, which is exactly what he gets here, encountering such underfoot conditions for the first time since scoring at Ascot back in December.
He won that Ascot race with bags in hand, showing that he was a good bit better than a mark of 112, and now that he gets conditions to suit, I’m not convinced that a mark of 121 is quite his ceiling.
We also shouldn’t forget that this fella finished not far off the rather useful Jeriko Du Reponet as a novice, so he absolutely has the ability to cut it with the sort of opponent he faces today, while he’s receiving weight all round, which can’t be a bad thing.
Let’s be honest, he finished a decent bit in front of Go Dante last time out, and even if that one improves here from a mark that is below his last winning one, the disparity in pricing simply looks off. If Olly Murphy’s runner warrants favouritism, there’s no way King William Rufus should be 22/1.
If you’re looking for something at a decent price that ticks plenty of boxes, then look no further than this lad, who really shouldn’t be as big as he is, regardless of how competitive this is.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 99 Naps) has a running P/L of -£8.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
GambleAware