Thanks to abandonments during the week, Saturday’s bet has ended up being the first Nap of the week. Let’s hope it was worth the wait.
| Newbury - 15:45 |
Beau Balko |
12/1 (each-way) |
Ahead of what is a decent Saturday of action, I’m interested in the primary race at Newbury, the Greatwood Gold Cup, worth a chunky 57k in prize money.
At the early odds, Beau Balko rates as a horse to support as far as I’m concerned, and with both 12/1 and five places on offer, an each-way punt is warranted.
A ready winner at Wincanton back in November, the gelding has since delivered a trio of promising efforts, finishing second over two miles at Newbury, as well as over course and distance, before coming home as the runner up at Musselburgh last time out. A repeat of that effort, from the same mark, would likely see him go well here.
Nicholls no stranger to landing this prize and not always with his “best” runner
Let’s be honest, Nicholls is a trainer who has a clear connection with this race and it’s absolutely fair to say that he knows how to get one prepped for a proper crack, winning it nine times since 2005. Several of those runners have got the job done at double-figure prices too.
With Harry Cobden in the saddle, Kandoo Kid, who tops the weights, is quite clearly Nicholl’s “first string” here, and he’s entitled to go very well on the form of his comeback win last time out, though let’s be honest, that one has won nicely in the past before failing to follow up. In fact, I’d argue that he’s got a little bit of a habit of doing that.
If we look at the penultimate effort of Beau Balko, then it’s far from difficult to envisage the mount of Ben Bromley going well here. On that occasion, he finished second behind a horse that has since gone on to perform very well from an increased mark in a hot race at Musselburgh.
The recent C&D form of this runner also bodes well as 13 of the last 19 winners of this contest had either won or placed over C&D previously.
We’re talking about a consistent performer, who has delivered several recent efforts suggesting that a mark of 129 probably isn’t quite his ceiling. With Bromley taking off 5 lbs here, he looks nicely weighted and ought to give his running.
Factor in that Nicholls has not only been in good form of late but has a habit of getting his seemingly “second string” types to run well of this and odds of 12/1 become worth taking.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 96 Naps) has a running P/L of +£5.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
