Last week's Lucky 15 bets weren't the greatest, and one came down to a double after two non-runners.
I'll be doing the Lucky 15 on Saturday, and Cairnzy will do Sundays as I am unable to do the racing for that day.
Today's Lucky 15 bet is advised as a straight win.
Flying Frontier 5/1 – Sandown 5.15
Many in this race appear to be on tough enough handicap marks, so I thought it was worth a chance on course and distance winner Flying Frontier.
He has only raced once this season, which wasn't the best of efforts, but it's best to focus on his last run last season. He managed to win a Class 2 handicap at this venue off a 2lb lower mark, so it's definitely not out of this world that he can win off this mark. There are decent horses in this race, but they are high in the weights, and the ones who aren't, aren't in the greatest form.
Sir Lowry's Pass 7/2 – Haydock 3.15
Another horse who has been previously tipped on the page is Sir Lowry's Pass. I tipped him up last time out at Redcar where he ran respectably, but not good enough.
The runner-up has since been the runner-up to Burrito, the well-handicapped Gosden horse at York. That race at Redcar was over 10f, and on the visuals, you'd think that Sir Lowry's Pass will appreciate the extra two furlongs he faces today.
He was staying on at the finish at Redcar, and when you look at his pedigree it also backs up the extra yardage being an advantage for him. The Dam stayed even further than today's trip, but she did produce First Light who was a winner over 12f, and was a solid horse.
Liosa 16/1 – Haydock 3.50
Seeing a Stuart Kittow runner at Haydock is a rare one. He has only sent two to this track in the last five years, they didn't return a winner, but he has had many winners in the past at Haydock.
Given this track is a rarity, his runner is worth a chance.
Liosa is definitely a better horse on the AW than the turf. He is 4/10 on the AW but is 0/8 on grass. Because of this, he is rated 8 lbs lower for his handicap mark on turf, which gives him a solid chance of winning. He can still win races on this surface despite not being as good, and he ran okay last time out at Leicester, running to a better mark than what he was racing off. They clearly believe he can capitalise off this mark, otherwise they'd be racing on the AW.
Intrusively 9/2 – Haydock 4.25
This is a good handicap and you can make a case for a lot, if not all of the runners. Instrusively was the horse I've nailed my colours to.
He made a nice return to the track at Newcastle last week after being off for 289 days. He didn't get the clearest of runs through that day. He tried to run on as strong as he could, but it was too late. That race was over 6f, and based on his runs from last year over 6f, it is too short for him. He gets going too late when getting a clear run. He needs further, so it's definitely the right move putting him to 7f today.
Considering he only made his return to the track a week ago, there is a chance that he will ‘bounce'.
GambleAware