So I am on Lucky 15 duty for the next couple of posts on this thread, so hopefully, my good form can transition to the lucky 15 selections from the main thread.
Rizzel's tips
Thunder Rock 7/1 – Haydock 2.40
At first glance, I was tempted to go with Nemean Lion as I think this step up in trip would be ideal for him, but he has to shoulder a penalty for his recent wins, which should make life a bit too difficult for him, even in a race of this nature which doesn't appear to be the strongest.
Instead, I am giving a chance to the out-of-form Thunder Rock for Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy. There has always been a good amount of ability with this horse and I think the fact they are staying over hurdles suggests they believe he can be competitive and good enough to land a race of this ilk. He won a Listed Chase last year, and since then he has gone off the boil, but I think you can give him a chance over hurdles now he is racing over a suitable trip, with the previous two runs this season being over shorter, which I don't think suits him at this stage of his career, as the Listed win over 3m would suggest.
It goes without saying that Sean Bowen is in tremendous form and if we are in with a chance at the last couple of jumps then he'll be booting Thunder Rock into every hurdle and powering him home.
Git Maker 5/1 – Haydock 3.15
I tipped up Git Maker when he made a return over hurdles for his first start of the season around a month ago. He was fairly pathetic in that race, looking in need of the run, which isn't a surprise given it was over hurdles and they were using it as a fitness run, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.
With him being back over fences and in a big pot like this, I think they'll have him spot-on for today's outing. They clearly believe he is well ahead of his handicap mark as he is racing out of the handicap, but running off bottom weight in a race like this will be nice for him as the marathon races around Haydock can be stamina-sapping despite the ground not being as testing as usual
Gavin Sheehan races off his lowest racing weight in the last twelve months, so he must be confident of a big run.
Le Patron 9/1 – Ascot 3.37
Siding with Le Patron in a race like this might not be the wisest of selections as there is some very good operators in this race with the likes of Corbetts Cross, L'Homme Presse and Pic D'Orhy, but I think there are negatives to a fair few of them and Le Patron looks to be too big in the market.
Other than my selection and Corbetts, the rest of the field are ten-year-olds, so they are getting on in age and should be on the comedown, whereas the two I mentioned at the start should be hitting their prime. Le Patron still has to prove he can be effective at this trip at the top level, and even at the top level in general, but he has put in a good performance already this season and he has shown a liking to Sandown, which is definitely similar to Ascot with the stiff finish and testing fences, which has been the deciding factor in backing him.
Corbetts Cross was my selection for the King George, but his jumping was a problem that day, as it has for the majority of his career over fences, so with him being prone to mistakes I thought to leave him alone. L'Homme Presse has always been labelled as a left-handed course horse, and even though he was second in this race last year and did win last time out, I think he is definitely on the decline. This race is Pic D'Orhy's Gold Cup, he loves Ascot and won this race last year in good style, so he'll be primed for this, but the Nicholls yard doesn't have the same oomph that it once had and his rating of 161 is definitely inflated.
Snipe 8/1 – Ascot 3.00
For the big handicap at Ascot we have a very competitive chase race over 3m where many have very good chances of winning if they can put in a smooth round of jumping. Somehow, I've been sucked into Snipe, who is a nearly horse, so I'm hoping this race today is the big one they've been itching to land off such a low handicap mark.
Harry Skelton will have to shed a few pounds to make the ride on Snipe, which is a good indicator that he is in with a fighting chance. His form would suggest he'll be there at the finish with a chance of winning this race as he has hit the frame in some decent races over the last twelve months.
This is being suggested as an Each-Way Lucky 15
