Last week's Lucky 15 was a mixed bag. Saturday's Lucky 15 returned our stake back with three horses being placed, but Sunday's returned £0 after a couple of poor efforts and a couple of poor rides (Alnayef & Masekela).
Advised as a straight win Lucky 15.
Arnaz 5/2 – Ascot 5.00
I managed to catch Arnaz's most recent race on the TV at the time it happened two weeks ago at Haydock, and I thought he ran a belter, and would be a horse who will be winning soon, so he gets my vote in this tough handicap in the penultimate race at Ascot.
He was staying on nicely in a big field handicap two weeks ago, and based on that effort, I thought the stiff 6f at Ascot could be perfect for him. This race is a tougher race with him now tackling a higher grade, but his run at Haydock was his first run in over 200 days, so he was entitled to have needed the run, and given he was the favourite, connections must firmly believe he is ahead of the handicapper.
Mammies Boy 4/1 – Warwick 7.45
There is a strong possibility that the Dan and Harry Skelton runner in this race could be well ahead of the handicapper, but I think taking him on with Mammies Boy is worth the shot.
Benjamin Macey takes the ride and takes off a very handy 7lbs, meaning he is running off 10st 4lbs, which leaves him with at least one stone less than the others in this race. He made an encouraging return to the track when finishing fourth to Tarahumara last time out, but he would have needed the run, as it was his first start in over 300 days. With that under his belt, he can beat that horse and put it up to the others in the race who are also in great form.
Off a mark of 103 (110 – 7), he should be on a very attractive mark.
Nad Alshiba Green 3/1 – Nottingham 2.30
Despite Michael Appleby being in horrendous form since the turn of the new flat season, his filly in this race ran a big race on his return to the turf, but was massively hampered when the race was starting to heat up, so she deserves a chance.
Last year, she managed to win twice as a juvenile and looked like a horse on the up. She was competing in some good handicaps toward the back end, and it looks like she has maintained her ability from two to three, and she probably would have won with a fair bit in hand if she had a clear run in a Class 3 contest at Thirsk last time out. If she can get a clear run today, I think she will take the world of beating, as I don't think there are many horses, if any, who are ahead of the handicapper, whereas I deem Nad Alshiba Green to be that.
Padishakh 7/1 – Nottingham 3.05
A horse who I fell for as he was ridiculously well handicapped last season was Padishakh, and I know many other tipsters fell into the same trap with him. He is still on a very good handicap mark and has since swapped yards to Edward Bethell's, so he deserves another chance.
This horse was a very good horse in France, and even last year, for David O'Meara, he ran plenty of races with credit. He has had a brief spell in Dubai at Meydan during the spring, so he arrives back in the UK in fit working order, which should be an edge over the majority of horses in this race.
Edward Bethell is a very good trainer, and I think he will be able to get the best out of this horse, and off a reduced handicap mark, today might be the start of a winning streak.
GambleAware