Saturday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Saturday’s selections from York, Newmarket and Longchamp

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Saturday's racing isn't short of quality with countless meetings happening throughout the UK and Ireland. Rizzel has decided to concentrate on the meeting at Longchamp in France while I've stuck to the UK meeting.

Cairnzy's Tip

Rogue Lightning 5/1 – York 2.35

Rogue Lightning was a horse who although I didn't tip up on Royal Ascot, I did fancy his chances on the day. He threw away his chances at the start on that occasion and as a result, was never able to get involved. This contest represents a significant drop in grade and he can go close under Danny Tudhope, who rode him last time he won at Doncaster when beating home Raasel by three-quarters of a length.

Vandeek 7/2 – Newmarket 4.35

Although his winning run came to an end on his reappearance at Haydock in May, it would be foolish to draw a blind eye to Vandeek who was a machine last season. He was beaten 4L by Inisherin that day but given that run came after a layoff and also on unfavourable ground, it's easy to draw a line through it. Vandeek represents a bit of value at 7/2 and if back to full fitness on ground slightly better than last time, he should go close to reversing the form with Inisherin.

Rizzel's Tips

Survie SP – Longchamp 6.02

I stumbled across this race when looking at the Grand Prix de Paris Group 1 later in the evening, as Survie was in the David Menuisier trained Tamfana's race from last time out, and Survie put in a tremendous performance to finish second in the Prix de Diane Group 1.

Today's race is a Group 2, so Survie evidently has the best form in the race and by quite a margin. She has a great chance of landing this race if reproducing anywhere near the same level of her run at Chantilly a month ago, but she has to prove she stays an extra two furlongs for today's race. In my opinion, she should have no problem staying the longer trip as she was staying out strongly at Chantilly over 10f last time around and in her previous runs she has finished off her races very strongly. She is by Churchill and out of a Le Havre mare, so there is staying potential in the pedigree.

This is a huge step down in class, the only way I see her getting beat is if this race turns into a tactical affair which can often be the case in France with small-runner fields. If she can get a prominent position and they go an even gallop, she should have too much class for this bunch.

She has opened up at a shorter price than I was hoping for, so I'm recommending an SP for this selection, in the hope she drifts.

Tamfana 5/1 – Longchamp 7.17

For my second fancy for the Lucky 15 I've decided to stay in France with the Group 1 action in the Grand Prix de Paris which I mentioned in my previous selection.

My vote goes to Tamfana who is the only filly in the race, which might not bold well, but she is a very talented filly and the few pounds she gets from the males will help massively, even if it doesn't appear that way on paper. David Menuisier is a French lad born and bred and he does very well when sending his horses to his native country. Tamfana won at Chantilly as a juvenile and has finished third on her other starts in France, most recently in the Group 1 French Oaks where she ran a belter, producing an RPR of 113. She was fourth in the English 1000 Guineas, so is evidently a Group 1 performer, and with the form of Porta Fortuna since the Guineas (was 2nd in the Guineas), you can hardly complain about that level of form.

Today, Tamfana steps up in trip to 12f and based on how she has been running over shorter I refuse to believe it's a negative and Oisin Murphy has mentioned he has no doubts about the trip.

The colts in this race don't appear to be spectacular and I think the only filly in the race can cause a minor shock.

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