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Well it was a wasted journey for both of Brian Ellison's horses at Fakenham, with both being pulled up after half the circuits. Strange decision sending them there at a track he does well at considering he has been in decent form the last couple of months.
Haydock 1:02 – Windtothelightning 10/3 (1pt, PaddyPower)
I’m going to start off with the form with my fancy, Windtothelightning. She was recently 4th in a hot Cheltenham mares Class 2 handicap. The 3rd, Good Luck Charm, has subsequently finished 4th in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton and 3rd in a Grade 3. The fav at the Cheltenham race was deemed to be a handicap ‘good thing’, fancied by most tipsters on the day and she has won again since. The 5th has hosed up on her first start over 3m since and has listed winning form from the season before.
This likeable mare is 4/7 over hurdles and has shown signs of true progression this year. She hosed up at Wetherby on her first attempt on testing ground and she ran a creditable race last time out when conceding weight to some smart mares.
Coquelicot won’t get an easy lead/maybe not lead at all with Stainsby’s Girl in the race. With the likely strong pace set from the two just mentioned, that is going to put emphasis on stamina which makes me want to take on the odds-on fav whose stamina is questionable. She stayed 3m on good ground at Doncaster last time out, but they didn’t go overly quick. She didn’t seem to stay the 2m 4f at Aintree in the Grade 1, granted it was at the top level, but you cannot be 100% certain that she’ll relish this trip at a good pace on heavy ground.
Haydock 2:40 – Sounds Russian 5/1 (1pt, Bet365)
I think this race is worth risking Sounds Russian as I think this might be a race which could determine what route they go for the rest of the season. If he wins or does well, the Stayer’s Hurdle route might be the plan, as that division is so weak that surely he has a great chance of running a big race considering he was running a mighty race in the Gold Cup last year before being brought down.
This race is hardly spectacular, and though Botox Has has decent form from this season, the penalty he is carrying means that he has to be taken on. I think Red Risk is the one to beat based on his run behind Botox Has at Wetherby. The Nicholls runner was travelling all over them in that race, but his jumping at the final 2/3 hurdles ruined his chances. He is best when fresh and will get the beating over the Gary Moore horse, and I think I will have a bet on Red Risk in a match with Botox Has.
However, I am sticking with Sounds Russian to win this. He is 0/3 over hurdles, but they were his first three runs over obstacles as a racehorse and over an inadequate trip, and he has since proven himself to be a borderline top-class chaser, which has seen him winning/going close off big weights in handicaps, and was 2nd to Ahoy Senor last year in a Grade 2.
Ruth Jefferson doesn’t have too many horses in the training and this lad is the apple of her eye, despite him not running since the last Gold Cup I think he will be fit and ready to win this and as we recently saw with Noble Yeats who reverted back to hurdles, the classy chase angle could prove to be profitable again.
Haydock 3:15 – Yeah Man 11/2 (1.5pt WilliamHill)
I really wanted to back Famous Bridge in this race as he has course form, handles the heavy ground and grinds out his races over shorter, looking like a horse who will enjoy a step up in trip, but I can’t look past the Gavin Cromwell trained, Yeah Man.
Yeah Man should have two 2nds next to his name from his last two runs at Ascot, but he fell late into the race the time before last when he was hitting top gear before falling. Last time out probably proved to me that he needs a marathon trip as he is simply outpaced over 3m, he was struggling to keep up with the others in the two races at Ascot, but when he gets a couple of whips and starts to go past a few horses he starts to really motor and I think this trip over 3m 4f and the testing ground could really unlock some serious stayer potential with this horse who is winless over fences, but given the recent records of Gavin Cromwell with his UK runners, it’s only a matter of time before he gets a win and Sean Flanagan makes the trip over from Ireland, which gives even more confidence about his chances.
If Silver Lining doesn’t turn up for this race, I’m advising a 1pt win Antepost on her to win the Eider Chase at Newcastle on 24th February 10/1 with WilliamHill. If she does run here today then I don’t advise backing her as a week in between the Eider and now will either result in her only running in one, or if she does both, I wouldn’t be expecting a great performance.
Ascot 2:25 – Bad 13/2 (0.5pt EW, WilliamHill 5pl)
It's no secret that Ben Pauling has really hit his stride with his horses over the last couple of months and I thought Bad towards the bottom of the weights in this contest was of interest.
This horse was gambled off the boards on his first start for Ben and his first start in the UK at the Cheltenham Festival last year in the Boodles Juvenile handicap (ex-Fred Winter). He didn't run particularly well, probably blowing his chance of a win by being too keen, but showed enough intent that he is going to win races for Ben Pauling, with Rachael Blackmore catching the eye as the jockey booking on that day. His runs this year have been much better, he was 3rd on seasonal reappearance at Ascot in a hot Class 2 contest, before finishing 2nd to Hansard in a Grade 3 and then finishing 3rd/14 behind a recent winning selection, Titan Discovery. He has had a wind-op since that run in December and if that unlocks some improvement in him, as does the step up in trip I think he can be a big player in this contest.
Killbeg king 1-50 ascot 5-2 NAP ?
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔
The russian doyen 2-35 wincanton
4-1 win
EVENS top 2 finish
50-50 stake
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔
Butch 2-40 haydock 5-2 NB ?
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔
Ballygriffincottage 3-00 ascot
50-1 ew 4 places SKYBET
25-1 ew extra 5 places bet365
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔
Iwilldoit 3-15 haydock
11-8 top 4 finish
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔
Firak 4-55 haydock 6-4 top 3 finish
Just noticed you put butch up as well as a nb so I’m more confident now . I don’t usually like it when they have a load of consecutive wind thinking is today the day when they lose ? but that’s why it’s called gambling at the end of the day and you only get decent money if your prepared to take a risk ?
Coral ??
MChares Town -Race 8.. . Doctor Jerry 13/8 Coral ****
Jerry has nothing to do with it as a solid ***** bet.
WATCH £12.34 stake
Horse ?
Cobden got to be winning on something today just a question of which ones maybe all ? Who knows? Then Sean Bowen on butch you would like to think he will be winning on now I’ve said it he will prob win on his other ride which is about 40/1 I think ? def with Rizzel on wind to the lightening that’s my kind of bet they love to scare you off by putting us a ridiculously short price on the fav so some won’t even entertain it . If it loses so be it I prefer losing that way going to double this up with butch and hope for the best ! ????
The first race at Gowran sees the current fav for the Boodles finally get another run in before the festival having been withdrawn 3 times recently due to ground conditions yet the ground today will still be bottomless, but I suppose they need to run him somewhere as time is running out.
He’s been given a mark of 120 following his 4 1/2L 3rd to Highwind who ran with credit at the DRF but could still only manage 8th.
I’m not quite sure what the hype is behind this horse, maybe the bookies know more (they usually do) but I think he’s worth taking on today at the prices with PINOT GRIS at an ew price of 7/1.
He’s only had the one start but finished 3rd behind Eagle Fang who I put up last week and won nicely. Eagle Fang had already had 4 runs over hurdles so had plenty of experience so to finish within 10L was a good effort for his first run and should come on a bundle for it. EF has also been given a mark of 125 for his win last week which puts him ahead of LITM as far as ratings go.
Other bets
Cuthbert Dibble 15/8 3.50 Haydock
Aimed Desjy 9/2 4.02 gowran
BOL
FFS Lark in the Mornin pulled yet again and another bet ruined because of it with a 55p deduction
Ascot 1:50 Henry’s friend 11/2
Ascot 2:25 Rambo T 14/1 e/w 11/8 just to place
Haydock 2:40 butch 2/1 Nap
Haydock 3:15 yeah man 9/2 NB
Good luck everyone
I had a feeling yours would win ? well done great stuff think Cobden is for the mugs today but I bet he wins his last ride for added torment ?
Thanks dazz don’t post to often these days but it’s nice to put up some winner from time to time though was rather lucky at the end there I thought he was going to get collared on the line. But a good start. Probably means the next three will run like three legged donkeys lol
You weren’t lucky Henry’s friend deserved that win certainly made to work for it! It’s what you like to see all of them trying to win at the end which can be rare with most of the races being fixed ?
be sure 11.45 France well done all winners yesterday
spring 11.50 turrfontain
in the green zone 12.10 kenilworth
You should of gone for green bubbles as well as in the green zone ?
Precilla Maisey
yup your reet dazzman 1979
king warrior 12.18 ew France
staindby girl 1.02 ew
That was short and sweet ! Onto 2 Moro ?
Poor old rizz ? surely not another Saturday white wash for us punters !
The dreaded N word strikes again ?
Luminous light 6/1 Gowran park 2-52 hopefully our money for Cheltenham
Unlucky nearly had it ! ?
Bad won’t win the Ben Pauling ship has sailed that’s it for today now ?
Bad won’t win the Ben Pauling ship has sailed that’s it for today now ?
Shamone !!!
Jiiinxed ?
Hangover harry ?
Superb Rizzle! ✅
Your write up for Yeah Man convinced me mate, in what was a hell of a race to try grab a winner in! ?
Superb Rizzle! ✅
Your write up for Yeah Man convinced me mate, in what was a hell of a race to try grab a winner in! ?
Yeah man ! Bang on , well done on that one rizzinator !
lehome de presse 3.36 nap
cuthbert dibble 3.50 nb
3:57 Newcastle- Bristol hill 13/2 nap/nb on the nose loads of money for Cheltenham ??
E/w ?
I’m all over Cuthbert Dibble already BUT it’s money back as a free bet if 2nd,3rd or 4th up to £10 with Paddy Power offer I’ve received BUT I see Oor Double Carpet likes it too.
Took the single and it’s a Trixie for me with later races after Rizzles picker!! ?
Ascot – 4.55..Anno Power 2/1
Haydock- 3.50..Cuthbert Dibble 15/8 (single)
Goeran Park -4.02…Aime Desjy 4/5 TOP 2 finish
GL rest of day folk ?
??
Few King Quids on…
Gowran -4.35..Noble Blue 15/4 **+
??
Bit of a copy and paste job BUT, and it’s a big one! Small stakes on these, I’ve possibly just waisted my down time looking these up although we shall see ? ?
Match up best Speed figures with the shouts and you’ve this lot for an early bet in US of A ??
Go with –
Trebles (x20)
4 Folds (x15)
Acca (x1) just in case
Weekend Concerto
EVS
GULFSTREAM 17:10
Mo Damorninggrouch ***
9/4
AQUEDUCT 17:20
Barry The Builder
6/5
GULFSTREAM 17:39
5. Bourbon Chase
6/4
AQUEDUCT 17:50
6. Slim Man
6/4
GULFSTREAM 18:08
Will Be Famous
7/4
AQUEDUCT 18:20
Stake
£5.00
Potential Returns 80.90p
GL all and well done winners today been a good couple of days with TOO many ? to mention! ✅
Well that’s another shambolic Saturday out of the way ?
Well done winners today.
Tomorrow’s another day, a new dawn on the long journey to cardboard city ?
I managed to get a £5 free bet from the bookie so would like to say I at least broke even ? better off just setting fire to money every week might last a bit longer ?
??
Santa Anita -Race 7..Heart Handed 15/8 ⭐️⭐️⭐️➕
Combo forecast numbers = 1 -4 -3 ⭐️ ➕
GL all and well done again to the winners ?
?? ⬆️
Heart Headed is 3/1 with Paddy Power ?
A big difference that and 11/10 TOP 2 finish but of course hats kind of what the Combination forecast is for – all things going to plan of course!
Fair Grounds -Race 6…Harbour Springs 15/2 ***Paddy Power Ew
Or to place Top 3 hes 13/8 and Top 4 EVS
GL ? ?? ?⚖️
??
Yahtzee ?
Harbour Springs WINS 10/1. ?