Racing tips: Venetia’s Mare should have no worries serving it up to the lads at Market Rasen

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Newcastle wasn't too kind to me with my three runners on Monday. The first ran no race whatsoever, the second ran to form but couldn't land a blow on the three ahead of him and then Blackcurrent went off like a nutter from the front, got headed but bravely battled back and lost out by a nose in a three-way photo finish.

Market Rasen 2:10 – Lagonda 9/4 (2pt)

If Market Rasen goes ahead then I do think Lagonda has a good chance in this Class 3 contest against the boys.

This mare is lightly raced for her age and she can definitely still have a decent career in handicaps off her current handicap mark of 114. She is a smooth and efficient jumper, low at her obstacles and doesn't spend much time in the air which is risky but effective when it works out. She jumped well on her seasonal reappearance and first run back over fences at Warwick, but evidently needed the run as she got extremely tired before turning for home. At Chepstow you could tell she was firing on all cylinders, she jumped nicely, but probably bumped into one who relishes heavy ground in the shape of Sporting Ace, who went off as 7/2F for the Sussex National on the weekend just gone. I think that form looks solid even though the winner didn't frank it at Plumpton as the third horse looks a nice horse and if he's not ahead of his mark I'll be very surprised. I don't think heavy ground is what this mare wants, but she handles it, but considering her sole win over rules was on good to soft I tend to believe that type of surface is what suits her best, as heavy ground will find her stamina out over 3m in the dying stages, so today's surface of soft, good to soft in places should be perfect.

I don't think this race is too competitive as Moon Hunter has to seriously prove he stays 3m as often looking like a non-stayer when stepped up to this trip, and would definitely prefer good ground. First Lord Du Cuet is clearly on an attractive mark but his recent two runs this season leave serious doubts, as does the jockey booking of Fergus Gillard which sees stable number one jockey, Jack Tudor take a swerve for this meeting. Peejaybee goes up in trip for new trainer Peter Bowen, but Peter has never used Paul O'Brien before and usually likes to use his sons, Sean and James, and new jockeys picking up spares don't get wins for Peter. Anglers Crag is interesting given he won on first time out for new trainer Brian Ellison, but I don't think that form is as strong as Lagonda's, so the Venetia Williams mare gets my vote even though the form of the yard seems to be slowly fading away.

Market Rasen 2:40 – William Cody 9/4 (1pt)

It's a tad worrying putting a horse up when there's a couple in the race who are totally unknown, but on recent form and runs I think it's hard to look past William Cody.

This horse does have a case of seconditis, with nine runner-up finishes in his 6yo career, but he has won races, albeit off lower handicap marks. Despite his last winning mark being 12lb lower than today's rating I do think he can win races like today and if his recent form is anything to go off, he could win this with a bit in hand.

His 2nd to The Edgar Wallace is a fantastic piece of form. The winner has since won again, the 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th have all won races since and the 7th ran a decent race in defeat at Uttoxeter. At Huntingdon William Cody bumped into Mylesfromwicklow who has since finished 2nd to The Edgar Wallace, producing an RPR of 131 in the process which is 14lbs higher than his official rating when beating William Cody. Last time out, William Cody bumped into Georges Saint over 2m 5f on heavy ground, that type of ground is what the winner relishes and William Cody isn't totally in love with that surface, especially over that trip, so I thought he ran a mighty race to finish 2nd. The winner has since finished 3rd in a close finish on the weekend just gone.

Nordano and That'll Be The Day were the ones to be wary of as they could be anything. Nordano used to be a useful horse a few years ago but is making his chase debut on stable debut on his first run in 722 days, he's on a good handicap mark but the last time we saw him he was plummeting down the ratings. The David Brace horse is having his first run from Ireland, he had good pieces of form of hurdles and David Brace is shrewd with his purchases, so he's one to watch in the market. As for the others, I don't think they offer too much despite being in okay form.

Southwell 5:30 – Skye Breeze 3/1 (1pt)

He is a tad shorter than I was hoping for, but I think Skye Breeze is worth a 1pt win at 3/1 or similar odds.

He is clearly a decent horse on the AW, as his record of 2/5 on the artificial surfaces would suggest. He also has two runner-up finishes from his three defeats and the run which saw him out of the frame come over today's C&D when he was the 5/2F. He did disappoint that day, and much more was expected of him, but he did have excuses as he was lugging left in the race and was found to be lame by the vet on his left hind, so if he was coming into this race without that happening he would probably be even shorter.

His most recent run after 204 days off the track in October at Catterick on heavy ground was never going to be to his liking as he is an AW horse and his record on the turf suggests he's not on the same level on grass, mix that with heavy ground and a big layoff it was just never going to happen for him that day. He's not been seen since, which is a bit of a concern given there's been a lot of AW racing during the winter, but he's back at Southwell off a 2lb lower mark and when you look at his form prior to the lame run he has a great chance in this. He was 2nd to Legendary Day at Newcastle over 13f, and that horse went on to 3x since then, which has seen his handicap mark go up to 87 (+10).  The third in that race was 2.25L behind and he is a good yardstick for the grade, and the 6th went on to win on his next start.

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