Racing tips: Top weight Aubis Walk can make it 2/2 over the larger obstacles on Tuesday

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

The New Year didn't start off to how I hoped with zero winners from four selections, but I've got three more for Tuesday to try and recoup some of those losses.

Ayr 2:15 – Aubis Walk EVS (1pt)

Carrying top weight of 12st 2lbs isn't going to be an easy task on heavy ground but Aubis Walk carried 12st 1lb to success on chase over today's C&D 22 days ago and looked like a horse who could keep progressing over the larger obstacles.

Today's opposition makes this a tougher assignment than last time out as Aubis Walk beat an 89 rated horse into second place by 1.5L, but giving away nearly two stone to a horse who had previously run well on chase debut just a couple of weeks before still rates as decent form to my eye, especially as the front two were 23L clear of the third. The runner-up runs on New Year's Day so we'll know a bit more about the level of that form after racing has finished on Monday. However, I thought it was an encouraging chase debut by Nicky Richards' horse who jumped nicely and jumped better as the race went on, producing a great leap at the final fence which put the race to bed, meeting it on a lovely stride which allowed him to kick on.

I think this mare will want further in the future as it was a nice staying performance over the extended 2m 4f last time, and she was a PTP winner over 3m on soft ground, so the stamina she possesses over this trip is a huge positive on ground which is going to find a lot of horses struggling.

If I'm honest, I'm not sure which horse rates as the main threat. I don't think stepping Grain d'Oudairies is the best idea as he is very keen over 2m and didn't seem to get home over 2m on heavy ground due to his exertions, so the step up in trip where they'll be going even slower, resulting in him pulling for longer/stronger spells disaster. Ballycoose makes his chase debut so has to be respected, but the yard doesn't tend to have many winners over fences and he was behind a Nicky Richards horse last time out over hurdles, so Nicky will have a good understanding on where that puts it with Aubis Walk. Travail D”Orfevre and Chapel Green look like potential non-stayers, they both don't look like horses who want to be stepped up based on their performances.

Ayr 2:45 – Ailie Rose 11/4 (1pt)

At the time of when the odds opened, Ailie Rose was the joint biggest outsider of the four which was a surprise as I thought she had a great chance of winning this race. When this is posted the odds will have more than likely dropped, but it's far too early to be posting this for Tuesday's racing, so fingers crossed the odds hold up.

Wakool has run in the only two runnings of this race, which has seen him finish 1st and 2nd, but I think he is vulnerable off top weight even though this is a race which is a big target for him. Barbados Buck's is the main danger to Ailie Rose as he has started life off really strongly with Daragh Bourke, he won last time out and was travelling nicely until clattering the last hurdle at this venue. However, I feel like heavy ground is what my selection wants, she isn't a big mare but she has plenty of heart and seems to stay this trip out nicely and I get the impression she might be able to get a lead in this race even though Rafferty's Return likes to run from the front as well. The latter-named horse is trying this new trip and combining it with heavy ground I don't think Ross Chapman would want to go from the front and he'd try and give his mount the best chance of staying this trip, which could open the doors up for J J Slevin to go from the front, which this horse is very good at doing.

She is a C&D winner and has been running well in decent handicaps in Ireland, which the others in this race would probably get lapped in, so she gets the vote for me.

Fakenham 1:30 – Country Kitten 33/1 (0.5pt EW 3pl)

I really do believe this race is terrible and a horse from the bottom of the weights and will probably be huge odds has a great chance.

I don't think it's that hard to make a case for Country Kitten even though his form has more letters than numbers, but if you can look past his poor efforts he surely is being overlooked. He won a hurdle race at Market Rasen, beating Percy Veering who has since won 3/5 races over fences for Kim Bailey, and Country Kitten beat him with ease that day on soft ground, which he wasn't proven on, which gives confidence that he'll handle the testing conditions today.

The hurdles form from that win looks good, but his chase effort in this race last year is what makes me think he has a great chance. He was 40/1 for this race last year but he was travelling powerfully and jumping very well till he fell, and when you look into the horses of this race, many have a lot to prove on the ground, type of track and their handicap marks. My selection also has a fair bit to prove, but given he's big odds and is returning to a race he was bound to go close in last year, he gets my vote from the bottom of the weights.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media