This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
It's been a shoddy start to the year and yesterday didn't help with two runner-ups, a horse missing the places by one and some sloppy jumping by Pozo Emery who went through the fences rather than over them.
Wincanton 12:20 – Casual Observer 6/1 (1pt, Bet365/WilliamHill)
The horses carrying a penalty in this race didn't really catch my attention, and I don't think their form is strong enough to put me off from going for a hurdles debutante.
I am going with Casual Observer for this race as he clearly has ability about him, and it's not a surprise to see Harry Derham and the Fehily Syndicate opt for a hurdles route just after one bumper run. He was a runner-up on his only PTP race which looks like good form with the winner winning nicely on bumper debut for Willie Mullins, beating a subsequent winner. It proved that Casual Observer stays well as it was over 3m on heavy ground, so to see him outpaced in a decent bumper at Market Rasen wouldn't have come as a surprise. The Derham team have evidently thought it would be a waste of a season going in bumpers as he clearly lacks gears in that sphere, and in slowly run affairs, it was never going to work out, but he shaped with promise nevertheless. The step up to 2m 5f on heavy ground should help him with his lack of speed, and receiving weight from the main players in terms of the market, I think he has a nice chance if jumping well.
Wincaton 1:30 – Prince Quali 7/2 (1pt, Bet365)
This race is full of older horses, with 3 of the 5 being 10yo's and the other runner outside of my selection has just turned 9. Other than Mr Grey Sky, the others are falling down the handicap whereas I think Prince Quali could offer something in Britain off his chase mark.
He was a fairly decent horse in France, winning 3 hurdle races and once over fences. He was best effective when running from the front, so it wasn't a surprise to see him held up on his first run for his new stable over hurdles, combined with being very weak in the market. With that run under his belt, they've switched him back to fences, so I'll be hoping for a front running ride by Harry Kimber or sit behind the pace, as it does look quite strong on paper with Fast Buck and Mr Grey Sky both liking to lead.
This horse recorded an RPR of 120 on his sole chase win over slightly further than today's trip, which saw the runner-up go on to win on his next start, so the form looks solid enough. I think you've got to ignore his last start in France as it was in a competitive Listed race and was over 2m 7f which evidently isn't his trip and stretched his stamina, as well as probably being outclassed. Knowing he does stay slightly further than today's trip is a positive as the ground is heavy and it will be a test of stamina at the trip.
Wincanton 3:15 – Don't Rightly Know 11/2 (1pt)
Having such an inexperienced jockey on board isn't my favourite approach to backing a horse, but I do think Don't Rightly Know has more than what she has shown us so far, and she's shown plenty of ability already.
This is her handicap debut and she probably should be 2/2 for this season entering this race, and if she was then you'd probably think she'd be shorter in the market. She clearly has her quirks and she showed that on her two starts this season which saw her idle and drift to the left on both occasions, but at Exeter she got away with it as she was clearly the best horse in the race and was miles clear. She lost the race rather than the winner winning it at Wincanton as she idled more that time and Chloe Emsley didn't get the whip in the left hand to prevent the drift until the winner was level. With that experience, I think Chloe will know better this time and I'm hoping she delivers this horse as late as possible as I think she is a decent handicap mark and the way she travels through her races on soft ground is very telling, so the longer she keeps hold of Don't Rightly Know the better as the quirks shouldn't show.
She stays further than today's trip, as we saw when he scooted clear over 2m 7f at Exeter, and she has the pace for this trip as we saw last time out. I don't think this race is too strong, and I think Polly Gundry believes she is a nice horse as she was well-supported on her return to the track at Exeter on the back of 709 days off, and they smashed her into 8/11F last time out, so I think she has a fair bit up her sleeve still, even at the age of 9 as she has only had 4 runs under rules.
Wincanton - 12:20 pm
6/1 @ Bet365
Wincanton - 1:30 pm
7/2 @ Bet365
Wincanton - 3:15 pm