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It has been a tough four or five days but we had a turn for the better on Saturday with Kargese winning at Punchestown at a drifted price of 9/4. I also tipped up Haatem at 28/1 EW in the 2000 Guineas and he ran a blinder to finish third so there was some nice each-way money made on that selection.
City Of Troy was the biggest upset on Saturday in the 2000 Guineas. I haven't read anything from connections to explain what happened but from what I saw he didn't stay the trip and went out like a light in the final few furlongs. Some bookmakers were offering a price boost on City Of Troy which is always a red flag for me.
I thought Paul Townend gave Kargese a lovely ride, he anchored her towards the rear which seemed to settle her a lot easier. He swooped from last to first and timed the ride to perfection to get up close to the line.
Sunday brings us some more top-quality racing, hopefully we can land a winner from somewhere.
Kalpana 11/8 -Newmarket 1:50
I was planning on not getting involved in this race, simply because most of the field is last-time-out winners and are currently lightly raced. However, I've changed my mind and chosen to have a punt on the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana.
The Andrew Balding yard continues to fire in the winners with Desert Cop winning yesterday under Oisin Murphy at 22/1.
My selection comes into this race as one of the few with a recent run under the belt and race fitness can prove vital in these competitive little races. I was very impressed with her recent outing, which saw her run out as a 10-length winner in a class three handicap at Newmarket. She won that contest with a mark of 78, which, of course, questions the form a little, but given the nature of how she went about her business, I still think she is capable at this sort of level.
The handicapper has given her a rating of 94 for that recent demolition job which seems about right in my opinion. Of course, this race is a step up again and will require further improvement, but I think she has it in the locker.
My Little Queens 4/1 – Hamilton 3:50
I was a massive fan of this horse last year and she has now dropped to a dangerous mark, which should see her win races sooner rather than later at this sort of level.
It was around this same time last year that My Little Queens was in great form, with two wins and a second between April and May 2023. There were signs of a revival on her previous run at Musselburgh when she finished fifth on the day. She travelled well into the race and looked a big threat before fading in the final furlong.
She drops down in grade and trip for this contest which looks like a good move by connections. She also comes to Hamilton, a course she has raced at twice and won on both occasions.
Sea The Fire 8/1 EW – Newmarket 3:40
Again, I'm sticking with the Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy combination, in what looks like another competitive race in which many hold strong claims.
I thought at the prices, Sea The Fire was a good alternative to take on those at the head of the market. She's a beautifully bred filly by Sea The Stars and looks like the type who will improve further as a three-year-old. It's worth noting that both her parents didn't make that significant improvement until the age of three.
I think she brings some nice form into this race from last year. She won on her debut at Newmarket when beating home Charlie Appleby's Beautiful Love by three-and-a-quarter lengths. Beautiful Love has since won over in Meydan as a three-year-old and finished behind stablemate Cinderella's Dream, who has now won two on the bounce.
My selection then finished second in the May Hill, a race that I think she should have won. Sea The Fire then contested in the Fillies’ Mile which saw her finish third on the day. She finished just over a length behind the eventual winner Ylang Ylang who also runs in this race. There is no reason why she can't reverse the form with that selection.
1000 Guinness 3-40 Newmarket
Ramatouelle 🇫🇷
6-4 top 4 finish NAP 🏇
9-4 top 3 finish (smaller stake)
SKYBET
Goliath 3-25 longchamp 5-2 🇫🇷 bet365
Beat 2 lengths by the reopposing Galashiels on season debut, Galashiels had 2 previous races this year so had an edge in fitness.
On a line through rashford who has beaten Galashiels, Goliath should be a lot closer this time as he holds a win over rashford.
Laurent barbarin has tipped shakti which is a worry but that one is as yet unproven at this level.
Side bet
Ramatouelle top 5 finish 11-10
Goliath top 2 finish
(Waiting for SKYBET to price up longchamp) ****
Ramatouelle/Goliath place double….
1000 Guineas looks a proper tricky puzzle this year, well It is most years but you get the jist.
What did you make of City Of Troy Elvis? Honking performance, was going backwards about 4 furlongs in, really strange. Think I read he’s out to 7s or 8s for the Derby, haven’t bothered to check as of yet. On that performance you’d be no where near it.
Auguste Rodin tended to run like a superstar in patches. Would be typical of AOB do have him firing come the next big valuable race.
If you’ve money to throw about, it’s probably not the worse antepost lay.
Good luck tomorrow, I knew you’d go for the French runner 🏃♀️ 😉
Got that. Wrong, rashford has beaten shakti last october, not Galashiels 🤔 and Goliath has beat rashford both finishing behind Galashiels last month but I think you get my drift 😁
Cairnzy
What was most suspicious about city of Troy was the fact I heard bookies saying they were desperate for it to be beat given the money punted on it over the winter and lo and behold it runs like a pig 🤔
I expected it to stroll home pretty easily until I seen bookmakers offering price boosts on it.
Always always always a red flag, why on earth would they price it up so short then offer punters even money on the day. Regardless If the max stake is only 10 or 20 quid, just doesn’t make sense.
That performance has fallen into the ‘too bad to be true category’ which is fair enough I suppose. I just checked the Derby Market, 8/1 he is for the Derby. Tempted to throw a few bob at it in the hope it’s a plot job, seen it all before haven’t we?
Very dodgy indeed. As you say, Cairnzy, the boosts were very suspicious.
It worked out well for us thanks to Hattem but it is not pleasant being the victim of a con.
Aventure 1-33 longchamp
9-2 win
5-4 top 2 finish
20-80 stake.
The only one of these with a previous group placing, this is a listed race.
The evens favourite gala real hasn’t even raced higher than class 2 and the 2nd favourite siyandra lost out to another in this small field alakai last year and that one hasnt competed in higher than class 2 either
2357 Churchill
Kentucky derby
Forever young 6/1 ew
Domestic product 20/1 ew
Forever young 3rd – so close
ylang ylang 3.40 nap reckon Ryan moore will go out determind to win this to make up for his lost yesterday on the odds on fav
also a ew on Cinderellas dream 3.40
kalpana 1.50 nb
.Repost, some price changes this morning
1000 Guinness 3-40 Newmarket
Ramatouelle 🇫🇷
6-4 top 4 finish NAP 🏇
9-4 top 3 finish (smaller stake)
SKYBET
* These are shorter now, glad I got on last night *
Longchamp 🇫🇷
Aventure 1-33 longchamp
6-1 win
7-4 top 2 finish bet365
20-80 stake.
Goliath 3-25 longchamp 5-2 bet365 (now 9-4)
Magellan 4-10
7-1 win
7-4 top 3 finish
20-80 stake
Zerafa 4-55 longchamp 5-2.
Favourite solite finished 4 lengths behind aventure who I’ve picked in the 1-33 race today on debut last september.
Solite has entries in the french derby and oaks and is trained by Andre fabre so must have some potential.
Zerafa came 3rd on debut just last month and might have a fitness edge today.
Aventure 2nd and profit but done on the line by the fast finishing favourite.
Best horse won in the end and Carlo ancelotti is involved with gala dream and that could be anything if she gets rid of her greenness.
Goliath 👍🇫🇷
Ramatouelle 3rd 👍🇫🇷
Magellan wins 👍🇫🇷
4/4 winning bets lol.
One to go, that will blow the full house for sure.
Watching footy now Liverpool v spurs mid table squabble 😂
Good luck if you have bets to run racing peeps 🏇
good morning Alex 4.58
well done all winners today