Racing Tips – Heartache Tonight can make it a profitable journey at Ayr for the Menuisier team

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I was left with two selections on Tuesday as Street Parade refused to enter the stalls. The remaining two selections ran below par. The Charlie Johnson yard continues to fire blanks and I'll be avoiding their horses until I see a change in form.

I've one selection from Ayr tomorrow that I hope runs well.

Heartache Tonight 11/4 – Ayr 3:20

It was strange to see Heartache Tonight being touted as big as 13/2 on the forecast odds for this race, as based on that she would’ve been massive odds. At the time of writing, she is 11/4 with most bookies, and I definitely think she is the correct market favourite for this listed event at Ayr.

David Menuisier is a shrewd trainer, and normally, when he sends his runners on a trek, they don’t come back empty-handed. His record at Ayr is 0/2, which goes against what I just said, but that’s a small sample size and his record when sending horses to France would back my statement up. His yard has started to hit a bit of form and he recently won the German 2000 Guineas on the weekend just gone. He has been operating at a 33% SR in the last fortnight and his horse's running to form is 75%, which is one of the highest in the country at this present moment.

On form, Heartache Tonight has the best in the book and it is fairly impossible to question that based on her fourth in a Group 1 on her third start at Longchamp last May. The form of that race looks solid, with the winner winning a Group 2 since, and the horses in behind her that day have boosted the form, with the runner-up winning a Group 3, producing an RPR of 114, as well as finishing fourth at the Breeders’ Cup meeting.

Heartache Tonight’s form has been patchy since then, and she seems to be very ground-dependent, with soft ground being to her liking. The ground at Ayr is deemed as ‘good’, but they are expecting rain to land in the late afternoon of Tuesday and further rain to fall a couple of hours before the 3:20 race. That makes her an attractive bet for this race, as if the going gets any soft in the description she has to be the play. She has already had a run this year, which came at the start of this month, where she evidently needed the run (finished fourth of six), but with that run under her belt, she could be tough to stop, as long as Paul Mulrennan doesn’t find traffic in the race.

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