Racing tips: English Raider State Occasion looks more than ready to delve into Class 1 Company

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Thunderous being beaten at odds-on was a tad surprising, as I did think he shouldn't be losing that race. However, he did and looked in trouble a fair way from home so it was a surprise to see him finish as close as he did. Still, it was a very disappointing result. Holloway Boy travelled nicely through his race before looking unbalanced in the dip and then didn't quite stay on as well as the winner. On the basis of that run, I think the winner will be a nice horse, potentially a Group 2/1 horse, and Holloway Boy is probably already at his level, but that will depend on how he will improve or get worse over the next few years as others around him mature.

Newmarket 3:35

This is a really good race and one which most people will probably have a different winner if you were to ask them. My money is going on TEMPUS who has been a winning tip from Cairnzy in recent months, and I believe his progression isn't going to stop even though he is the joint eldest in the race at the age of 6.

I love horses like Tempus who finally manage to realise their potential late into their career and go on a real hot streak and show that age is just a number, and you shouldn't write a horse off due to it. I think Archie Watson is one the main reasons for this horse to start winning some nice races as he has only been with Archie since January when he joined as a 97-rated horse, won on debut (400-day absence) and hasn't really looked back since, now rated 117.

There is a possibility that he would prefer fast ground, which is more than likely not going to happen with the ground being described as ‘good' the night before and with rain due to fall, I can see the ground with some type of ‘soft' in the description come the time of racing. However, he has won on heavy before and his pedigree suggests he should be fine on it, so hopefully, he'll be just as effective.

I wouldn't say he's got the best form in this race as I'd say Pogo probably takes that crown with his win in a Group 3 and some good runs in defeat in Group 2's. The ground is a big concern for me if I was a backer of Pogo as I think he likes it rattling quick, which it shouldn't be, but also the trip is a big concern. He has been a different animal since they dropped him to 7f, so for them to go to a mile on a stiff track like Newmarket is a little strange. He is one of the pace angles in this race, along with Oscula who does tend to race prominently. Ideally, I'd like a pace burn up to set a good stamina test as that would be right up the street of Tempus who has a good turn of foot but also stays the mile trip out extremely well and probably better than any in this race, so I'd be very happy if that was to happen.

Mutasaabeq will more than likely be a popular figure in the betting due to connections and how much of a strong traveller he is in his races. I've been lured into backing and tipping him up this season and I think he flatters to deceive when the going gets tough and I think if he gets into a battle he will be outstayed on a stiff track. He finished closer to Chindit than Tempus did when they clashed but I think Tempus has improved since and it's not a fair reflection to compare the distances between them. Potapova is a horse I had pinned down as a horse to follow but she had been disappointing until winning in taking fashion last time around. Her inconsistent profile of this season is off-putting and back against the boys, she has to run a career best to win this.

Dundalk 7:00

This is a bit of a strange one as Ralph Beckett sends over STATE OCCASION across the Irish Sea to Dundalk in a Listed race, with Rossa Ryan doing the steering. It's not a surprise to say that this is the first runner at Dundalk for Ralph in the last five years, and he has previously only sent 3 runners to the Irish AW track in his time of training, which has produced a winner and a second, recording a profit of +5.00 to £1 level stakes.

For me, this filly is ready for this step up in class, and if she gets a good sit from a fairly wide draw in 10, she could be tough to beat. The progression she has shown in the last two runs is quite remarkable as she seemed like a typical above-average handicapper, but since stepping up to 10f she has become a different beast. I thought the win at Goodwood was decent considering the runner-up, Rousay went on to win a Class 1 Listed and then finish 2nd in a Listed race earlier this week (was unlucky). The third of that race has gone on to win twice and also runs today, so fingers crossed she wins again to frank the form some more. But, the most recent run at York in a Class 2 race is what I thought was a ridiculous run for the rating of 94 she was given prior to the race, as she obliterated that field in a 52k race, producing an RPR of 112, winning with ease. To my eye that proved that she was a Class 1 filly, as she carried top weight in that race and battered some decent horses, including the well-backed favourite who didn't run a bad race at all in reality.

She was entered for a Class 1 race earlier this week but was withdrawn, so the fact they've gone for this race shows that they need to race her as she is clearly flying at home. It seems a weird place to race her, but connections must really fancy their chances and I can see why they're doing it. The AW doesn't seem to be an issue for her, winning 2/4 on the surface previously. My concern is the stall, which I eluded to earlier, but I'm hoping she can break on terms and get a handy position.

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