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Yesterday was a great result, with all three selections winning. If you took the treble at the advised odds, it paid just over 12/1.
I've two selections for tomorrow with my main play coming at the meeting at Newcastle.
Brunch 6/1 – Newcastle 4.10
I tipped up Brunch on his reappearance at Nottingham at the start of the month and although he let me down that day, I'm willing to roll the dice with him again in this contest. I may or may not have mentioned in my write-up after the race that I was going to avoid him going forward, if I did then I've changed my mind since.
My selection has failed to win a race since landing a Listed contest at Pontefract in July 2021. As a result, he has now dropped a long way in the weights. Brunch contested in this race last season which saw him finish sixth and only a length and a quarter behind the eventual winner Lattam who also comes here to defend his crown. Brunch is now 12lb better off with Lattam, which gives him a great chance of reversing the form.
Brunch has a decent strike rate at Newcastle, winning twice and finishing sixth on his three visits to the track. The wins may have come earlier on in his career when he was in better form but it's at least a positive knowing he handles the track.
Having rewatched his reappearance run at Nottingham, I was probably a bit harsh in my analysis of his performance. He was only beaten a length and a quarter by the winner Aerion Power. He found trouble in running on a couple of occasions which halted his momentum when he tried to put down a challenge. With a clear passage, he may have won, as he stayed on well once in the clear.
The form of the Nottingham run looks okay on paper with the second come out and winning next time out in a class 3 and the third finishing in the placings on his next outing.
Hard Solution 10/1 EW – Hamilton 6.45
If there's a race that defines ‘scraping the barrel' in terms of quality then this is it and tipping in such races is probably a bad move but at 10/1 I'll chance my arm with Hard Solution who looks worthy of a quid or two eachway.
Only 7 runners go to post, however, bet365 is offering 3 places which enhances our chances of at least gaining some each-way profit.
I think it's pretty clear that this contest has been the aim for Hard Solution given he's twice a winner of the race having won it in 2019 and 2023. He has a decent strike rate when coming to Hamilton, with 4 wins and 3 placed efforts from 14 runs.
His form this season is far from inspiring, having only won once and placed once in 14 outings. Regardless, he's back down to his last winning handicap mark of 46 and a return to 5f should hopefully play to his strengths as most of his previous form was over the 5f distance.
Really well done with the treble Cairnzy. Wonderful to see.
Thanks mate,
Not the most exciting of prices but they still have to get the job done on the day.
Good luck for the rest of week.
As always few stats that might be of use to someone over the next few days/ weeks from my bet tomorrow
Noisy Music 4.20 Nottingham 15/8
Yard had 3 winners yesterday from 5 runners, a 2nd and 50/1 shot finished last. 2 of the winners yesterday were 3 year old ( as is Noisy Music )
Yard have had 4 wins from 16 this season in handicaps at the track this season.
William Buick is a notable booking. He’s obviously there because of the Godolphin runner but he’s got on this one as well. Alistair Rawlinson is at the track, he rides the other runner for Mick Appleby.
William Buick rides Nottingham really well, he has a 23% strike rate there, which is one of his best strike rates at all the courses. In the last 12 months he has ridden here 12 times with 4 winners at a 25% strike rate. In 2024 he has a 40% strike rate with 2 wins from 5.
Won really nicely on debut for the yard over 6 f at Windsor, which is a flat galloping track. They then ran her over a shorter distance, 5 f, at Thirsk, which is an undulating track, only 4 days later.
I’m pretty convinced that race came too soon, and she looked a bit unbalanced on the undulations. She was very well backed to win that day so I’m happy to put a line through that race.
Tomorrow she runs off the same mark as that last run, back over 6 f, back on a flat track. Had about a 3 week break. Should be really hard to beat if reproducing that form from Windsor.
Main danger, Miss Stormy Night has had her form boosted a fair amount, receives weight as well. Clive Cox only runner on the card. Should give Noisy Music a decent race but I reckon connections are confident with the booking of William Buick.
All the best everyone ( please note my stats will be slightly off as I studied this race yesterday evening so haven’t included today’s results )
Forgot to mention last night…back in a smaller field of 8, instead of the 13 runners last time, could well be a big factor also.
Do No Wrong 3.05 Cartmel Friday
Beautiful jumper, barely puts a foot wrong at his fences. Travels beautifully in his races as well which is essential at Cartmel. Its such a tight track, feels like you’re constantly on the turn at times. That ability to travel in your races is so important here.
Bumped into a very well handicapped one last time out, so it was no bad run at all, finishing well clear of the rest. He has run twice at this track, finishing 2nd over hurdles and also
winning here over fences about this time last year.
Elleon, for Sam England ( excellent stats for his chasers this season), is the likely favourite in the race. He does look the better treated at the weights, running off the same mark at his 3rd to Backbyjet only 4 days ago.
The problem with Elleon is he is such a poor jumper, can be really sluggish at his fences. While Elleon will be losing a length at every fence, Do No Wrong will likely be gaining 2.
I reckon Do No Wrong could be a fairly decent price tomorrow, obviously I need to see how they price it up so will be checking this early markets at about 3.30 today to see if there’s a bet to be had
Monticristo Boy 2.40 Nott ew @ 50s
GL
Alpine stroll 2.10n 13-2☘️☘️gl all
heart of city 4.00 ew well done all winners yesterday
bear force one 4.10 ew
bear force one 4.10 ew
yup and ..miss stormy night 4.20
stash the cash 5.15 well done all winners today
Another non runner again ? ?
??
Gulfstream -Race 4…Queens Deynmar 9/4 Bet365 **+
Small stake but must have chance on ratings and missed the 3/1? ?
GL all the rest of night