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It was frustrating to see Kool Moe Dee rear in the stalls as the gates opened, leaving him with virtually no chance of winning. I said how it can be crucial to grab the rail at Windsor, and it was the case in this race as the winner saw no other horse in the race and led from start to finish. It's difficult to say what would've happened if Kool Moe Dee broke well and pressured him for the lead, as the market vibes were strong, seeing him go off fav.
Punchestown 4:50
The one I like in this is at the very bottom of the weights. SIT DOWN LUCY looks to have a nice chance in this if she can stop the jumping out to the left, which has been a habit of hers. She'll be running off 9st 10lbs, as Charlie O'Dwyer takes off a handy 7lbs, meaning she will be the second lightest horse in the contest.
The form she has shown now looks very good, especially the 4th placed finish last November at Fairyhouse with Gua Du Large. That horse runs in this off a 7lb higher mark, but has a huge swing in the weights with the selection who is 17lbs lighter than that horse, which is 14lbs lighter than when they met. Glan was second that day, and he has since won a valuable handicap at Fairyhouse, and is one of the more fancied runners in this race to run well. Once again, the pull in the weights is massively in the favour of Sit Down Lucy, so I think she deserves her spot in this race and could spring a surprise against some of the more fancied horses.
The time before her fourth placed run, she finished 2nd to Top Bandit who has since improved from 119 rated to 135 rated, and he only managed to beat Sit Down Lucy by 2.5L. She has previously been runner-up in a Grade 3 behind Impervious, also finishing ahead of Glan and Party Central (off level weights). Overall, I think she could be better on a softer surface, but she seems to handle the quicker ground just fine. Ideally, we'd want a quick pace to be set as she is a strong stayer at this trip. I'm a big fan of Peter Fahey as a trainer, and his horses are always worth another look in similar contests.
Punchestown 6:35
I think you have to take on Bob Olinger in this, he's clearly not taken to chasing as well as what people anticipated, and on the back of that Cheltenham run, he is far too short in this. FURY ROAD is my answer to him. I tipped Fury Road up at Cheltenham, where he was eventually a non-runner. I tipped him up again at Aintree where he ran a belter to finish 2nd in the Mildmay behind Ahoy Senor. There was a few times in that race where I thought he was travelling the best and looked the most likeliest winner, but then I saw Ahoy Senor and he won very nicely. However, I thought that was a top class performance, and if he repeats that effort, I think he could be tough to beat in this. He will be happy on today's ground, where others might want it softer. He jumps better than most/if not all of the horses in this race, and he's clearly in good form. Bob Olinger is a class act, but hurdles look better suited for him, as his jumping does look quite sketchy. He tries this trip for the first time, which should be fine for him, but the ground isn't ideal for him and the fact he is making a return after tearing a muscle, 40 days doesn't seem that much of a layoff in the grand scheme of things, and can be avoided.
Brighton
1:50 – Lucy lightfoot 7/2
2:20 – Kondratiev wave 5/2
4:33 – dawn view 6/1
5:05 – mr pc 6/1
Lucky 15 , best of luck 👍
Dawn view is my pick of this rotten bunch !
Dawn view is my pick of this rotten bunch !
Well at Least the nap came in at a 7/1 drift 💰💰😜
I even told you twice 😂
Elle klassyco 6-00 punchestown 6-1 ew extra 7 places.
Last year’s winning combination.
Chacun pour soi 5-25 has a great record in Ireland and beat allaho in the 5-25 last year and could serve it up to the favourite energumene, but at 6-4 too short, if it’s 2-1 or better will be having a dabble
Just got 15-8 for chacun pour soi which looks like the ceiling as I suspect price will drop.
Bob olinger 4-50 NAP 🏇
odds 11-8, really ??.
He was well beat by galopin des champs before that one fell at Cheltenham.
There is nothing in this race capable of running anywhere near the level galopin was going at until the fall.
Beacon edge is 14-1 for this and beat fury road in November and fury roads recent run at aintree behind ahoy senor is maybe over rated as ahoy senor and the 3rd le homme presse had tough races at Cheltenham while fury road arrived at aintree a fresh horse, and aintree was only a couple of weeks ago and may have left its mark on fury road.
6-35 not 4-50 ⏳
Got 6/4 with Paddy Power boost on Bob Olinger last night Elvis.
Also put my £10 free bet on a treble with Sir Gerhard and Energumene.
GL all today
Good Morning 🥱
1:35 Yarmouth – Shining Al Dinah
2:30 Nottingham – New Dimention
3:48 Yarmouth – Bake – William Buicks only ride
4:05 Nottingham – Noon Star
4:40 Nottingham – Tribal Art
More Coffee ☕
3.40 Brides Hill 7/1 ew
Many in the field ran at Fairyhouse just 9 days ago and it’s always difficult to know how they will come out of the race.
So I’ve swerved them in favour of BH who comes here fresh and if reproducing her run over Xmas when beating Imperial Cup winner Surprise Package must have every chance and looks a good ew price.
4.15
Not a betting race but I’d give SG the nod over DD purely on experience. I wouldn’t be too worried about his run last year here as its known the change of feed following the stable switch had a negative effect on him at the time.
4.50 Ardia 9/2 win
Mick Halford is known more as a flat trainer but this horse looks very well h’capped based on his last run when 3rd to Banbridge prior to Cheltenham beaten 2 1/4L. The winner is now rated 143 and Ardia gets in here off 125.
I have also had a small ew on HEARTS OR TRUMPS 16/1 5 places who is 7lbs better off with Glan for 7L but I thought he ran on interesting closing stages and with a smoother path would have got closer.
6.35 BEACON EDGE top 3 13/8 pp 14/1 small win.
Personally I wouldn’t be backing BO with stolen money. He picked up an injury at Cheltenham and you just don’t know how he’s recovered. He is also wearing a tongue strap for the first time which can help breathing but is also the sign that a breathing OP is probably needed.it is also his first try at the trip.
Beacon Edge is proven at the trip. He ran Farouk D’Alene to 3/4L on heavy ground giving him 7lbs which is arguably the best form in the field. He’s also beaten Fury Road every time they’ve met when both finished the race.
I just think he’s been a bit overlooked by the bookies and should be a lot shorter.
Nothing for the rest of the card
BOL
I forgot the Champion Chase but not a betting race anyway
I think CPS has a chance today particularly on this ground. If he can produce something like what he did last year here he’ll take some pegging back.
Fascinating race in prospect.
Y 1440 Thaki 9/1 E/W 4 Places
B 1703 Moveonup 22/1 E/W 5 Places with sky
Ocean Wilde 5.03b 40-1☘️☘️
Trixie and single on the first.
Dinoblue …3.40 15/8
Tribal Art…4.40 7/4
Ardla…4.50. 9/2
GL
Sunrise valley to beat khatwah (matchbet) 6-5 (bet365) 3-30 Nottingham
Noon star 4-05 Nottingham 10-11 win
Double pays just over 3-1
——————————————————–
Ocean Wilde 5-03 Brighton
50-1 ew 5 places SKYBET…
20-1 ew extra 7 places
4:05 Nottingham- technique-9/2 💰💰💰
felix desjy 4
50
One for 2 Moro
6:50 Musselburgh- fleetwood pier 5/2
Ryan Moore is trash! What a donkey of a jockey.
I would nt touch him on any short priced favourite. I do think he’s a bit overrated be we all have our own opinions and free to put your money where ever you want
Ryan Moore is trash! What a donkey of a jockey.
6:00 punchestown
Miss Augusta – 20/1 e/w 😋
Can’t knock that second place 20/1 💰😘
ideal siergues 6.00 ew well done all winners today
Energumene is a monster. Really hope we get Shishkin back next season so we can look forward to the rematch.
I think we’ll see SG over a fence next season and in the Turners rather than the Arkle. DD was dreadfully poor today, not sure what way they will go with him. I fancied Mighty Potter at an ew price for the Supreme but ran no sort of race but his form was closely tied in with SG and he goes in today at 20/1.
That’s racing !!
Well done to all the winners today
One more seeing as I’m in a good mood 😁
7:25 Ayr – milliemix 33/1 e/w
lifetime ambition 6.35 ew last bet today