This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Another couple of runner-ups from Saturday and a third-place horse who belted one heavily before turning for home, which cost her the chance of getting closer.
Casual Observer was as big as 22/1 just a few minutes before the start of his race, but he ran better than the eventual 16/1 odds he was sent off at. Prince Quali was well-supported, was keen to post, jumped the best in the race but didn't stay on strong enough to reel the winner in. As I mentioned at the start, Don't Rightly So belted a hurdle which costed her plenty of lengths and was a big check to the momentum. She rallied late on, but probably would've finished 2nd if it wasn't for that mistake, as I don't think the winner was for beating.
Plumpton 2:15 – Eldorado Allen 11/4 (1pt, PaddyPower)
It's strange to see 10yo Eldorado Allen over hurdles, as he's been kept to fences since 2020 and you can't really question that decision as he has run some cracking races and won some nice pots along the way. However, it's a no brainer to come here with him as the prize of £39,023 to the winner is a great pot to land and despite being a 10yo, he still has the ability and I think he is an interesting runner back over hurdles.
Towards the bottom the weights you have horses who have to prove they can race at this level, so the likes of Transmission and Ramo are a no for me. Mario De Pail is a strange one. I thought he was bound to win a race soon, but his run at Ffos Las was appalling and you cannot be backing him on the back of that. Hititi is probably the danger horse as he is still unexposed at this trip, has won three of the last five and ran nicely at Ascot last time out behind a low weighted rival. But, for me, Eldorado Allen is the class horse in the race and he proved that when finishing 4th in the Coral gold Cup at the start of December, finishing behind some younger and progressive staying chasers.
It is evident that he isn't the horse he once was from a couple of years ago, but that recent effort at Newbury and the 3rd placed effort at Ascot in a Grade 3 showed he is still fighting at a decent level and this is definitely a drop in class. He was a decent hurdler from back in the day and those runs came over 2m which in hindsight was never going to be his ideal trip as he stays very well. But he was 152 rated at his peak, so his mark of 143 which is 138 as Freddie Gingell takes off 5lbs makes him a decent bet for Sunday.
Plumpton 2:50 – Gold Clermont 7/1 (0.5pt EW, WilliamHill 4pl)
There are quite a few horses in this race that I've tipped up over recent years and a couple who I've tipped up in recent months, but I landed on Gold Clermont to land the Sussex National.
This is a cracking race, but I felt like going for the unexposed horse at the trip which Gold Clermont is. He probably was in the grips of the handicapper when running over 3m as he struggled to win a race before his most recent win, but he ran well in defeat. He ran a good race on seasonal debut, before romping home at Fakenham on his first attempt at 3m 5f and on that performance, this type of race looks a great race for him. I like the Fakenham form, not the horses he's beaten, but more of the track as we already know he likes Plumpton, but to stay 3m 5f at Fakenham which is a very similar track to Plumpton was an ideal prep for today's race. He was cruising around Fakenham, glided through the soft ground like it wasn't testing and then stayed on when Sean Bowen asked him to win his race, so I believe there's more to come from him and he should have a decent chance now upped in class.
Sean Bowen is injured so Philip Armson takes the ride and takes off a further 3lbs from the already low racing weight of 10st 5lbs, meaning he is running off bottom weight, which is a help on soft ground in staying contests.
Rose Of Arcadia was the one who I think will end up going off as favourite due to the recent 3rd at Listed level in a Mares race. I tipped her up the time before over 3m 3f at Cheltenham and I thought she had a great chance, but she ran a stinker, so I do question whether she can cut it against the male horses, or whether she's just meant to be racing against the mares.
- 2:15 pm
11/4 @ PaddyPower
- 2:50 pm