Monday’s Racing Tips – Upset the apple cart with Motawahij at Ayr

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Highwaygrey was a nice winner on Sunday at odds of 10/3, and kept up the good record in that particular race for trainer Tim Easterby.

The Pontefract race that Rizzel tipped Flight Plan in saw an easy winner from the horse who led them from start to finish. You can't be getting an uncontested lead around Pontefract as it can be very difficult to come from behind, and the horse in front did what he had to and did it in fashion. Flight Plan got out the gates awkwardly, and had a lot of sweat on him, so maybe he didn't handle the preliminaries all too well, or maybe it was the warm weather at Yorkshire which caused it, either way, it wasn't a vintage performance.

Jet Of Magic put in a stinker, and I don't think being pestered for the lead exactly helped, but Sam Twiston-Davies was firm in the way he wanted to ride the horse and he stuck to it. He eventually tailed off very quickly and to add insult to injury, last week's honking selection Dinons went on to win at big odds.

The profit/loss for the month currently stands at -9.145pts.

Cairnzy's Tips

Motawahij 5/2 – Ayr 2.30

I think the short-priced favourite Weissmuller is worth taking on in this contest, and Karl Burke's Motawahij looks a worthy alternative at a more attractive price.

It's hard to judge the form of this field given they've only had a handful of runs or so between them, and that's before you even enter the unknown with the unfancied and unraced Sure And Stedfast from the Ewan Whillians yard. The top two in the betting seem to have this contest between themselves, if soley going off their current prices of 1/2 and 5/2. I'd tend to agree that this looks a straight match up between my selection and Weissmuller, although at 1/2, I think you have to take the Archie Watson runner on.

Weissmuller has the benefit of more racing experience, having had the three runs so far this season. Weissmuller finished third on debut and 4L of the winner Kassaya. Kassaya was massively fancied at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary but was disappointing that day, only managed a midpack finish, and is yet to run since. Weissmuller out ran her odds of 100/1 in a class 1 next time out, finishing 3L of the eventual winner Ain't Nobody who has since gone on to finish last in a Group 2 at Newmarket. Weismuller was soundly beaten into last place in her most recent outing at Deauville in listed company. Although the assignments Weissmuller contested in were tough, I'd hardly say she's bullet proof at 1/2. I can understand the price of 1/2 as this is a dramatic drop in grade into a class 5, but she's not for me.

Motawahij was a replacement tip at Royal Ascot after my main selection for the race was a non-runner. Similar to Weissmuller, this contest also represents a drop in grade for my selection. Karl Burke has had his juveniles firing this season, there's no two ways about it and as previously mentioned, Motawahij defintiely looks like a solid option in my opinion if you fancy taking on the odds on shot. My selection was a 200k+ purchase at the Breeze Ups, so connections clearly feel he has a lot of ability. He showed that ability when finishing second on debut when not strongly fancied in the market, but shaped with a nice amount of promise. Motawahij was then thrown into the deep end in the Chesham Stakes, which was won in impresive fashion by the Aiden O'Brien trained Bedtime Story, who has followed up recently since that run. Although my selection was soundly beaten in the Chesham, I thought there was a lot to like about the run. Motawahij showed some good pace throughout that contest and led one of the groups at one point before weakening in the final two furlongs. My selection was keen to post that day and ran far too freely throughout, so the writing was on the wall a fair way from home. Regardless, there's definitely ability there, and after only two runs, there's hopefully more improvement to come from my selection. Getting him settled early will be important and this drop back to 5f from 7f looks a good move, given my selection only weakened 2f from home in the Chesham.

Enfranchise 13/2 – Galway 7.10

I don't tend to get involved with Irish racing, which will come as a bit of a surprise to some given I live within two to three hours of some of these Irish race courses. I've always prefered the UK stuff and can't seem to bring myself to enjoy the Irish side of things. I enjoy the Irish jump racing to a degree but the flat stuff at Dundalk etc is personally a no go for me.

Enfranchise has proved herself a decent horse, finishing second and winning in listed company in her last two outings. Her most recent run in May was impressive, comfortably winning at Gowran Park by 2L on the back of a 239-day break. She hasn't raced since which would suggest connections want to keep her handicap mark the same, with this contest being the main aim for her. Ground conditions will not be an issue with Enfranchise seemingly a versatile horse when it comes to ground conditions, having form on good, soft and heavy ground throughout her career. Most of her better form, in particular at a higher level has come on soft/heavy ground, so the forecast soft conditions at Galway on Monday will be of a benefit to her chances.

Rizzel's Tips

Uncle Albert 7/1 – Galway 6.40

Monday sees the start of the Galway Festival which has lost it's spark in recent years, and I don't think it quite grabs the punter's attention in the UK as it has done previously. However, there are some very competitive races on Day 1 and as a result of that, you can get some decent value. My first selection of the day is Uncle Albert running in this 50-80 handicap over 7f.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that many horses will be turning up to Galway as very well-handicapped horses, as it's still a huge festival in Ireland and every trainer and owner wants to have a winner there, which makes my life even harder. Despite that, I do think Uncle Albert has a great chance in this race, but with it being a 15-runner handicap around Galway, the chances of getting a clear run could be an issue, but you can't take that into consideration when backing a horse that you fancy.

Uncle Albert suffered a terrible passage at the Curragh 65 days ago, and based on how well he finished the final 100 yards, with a clear run he probably would have won. Today's race is a drop in class from the Curragh race, and based on how well the form of that race has developed, it bodes well for a big run for Kieran Cotter's runner. The winner didn't do well at Royal Ascot, but the runner-up and eighth-placed horse have won since, and many in behind have run very creditable races in defeat.

Kieran Cotter has opted for Colin Keane's services, which is clearly a very positive jockey booking and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. When teaming up, they have a 19% SR which is a solid rate. The horse has won on heavy ground before, so the soft ground which will probably dry out slightly will not be an issue, and if it does dry out fully, he is more than capable of winning as he showed on good ground last time out when have a troubled passage.

Ephesus 3/1 – Galway 7.45

There are probably a few in this race who are better handicapped than Ephesus, but with the nature of Galway, they might struggle from their draws, and when I believe Ephesus will make the running and avoid any trouble I think he is the horse to be on.

Ephesus isn't going to be an Aidan O'Brien superstar. It took him four runs to lose his maiden tag, but that was definitely his best run to date, and though he isn't going to be a Group 1 winner like his father (Galileo) based on the level he's shown so far, he definitely has his battling qualities and they were on show at the Curragh in his maiden race a week ago.

Ryan Moore took the bull by the horns at the Curragh and got to the front and wasn't passed. Ryan isn't at Galway this week, so Wayne Lordan is doing the steering and it's not a bad replacement as I rate Wayne very highly. I'd imagine connections would have been thrilled to have seen Ephesus is drawn in stall 3 as it should allow Wayne to employ the tactics that Ryan used on this horse last time out. Ephesus looks like a relentless galloper at this trip and might even get further in time, and with him having the best seat, as long as he breaks well, he should hopefully get to the front and the others don't pester him on the front end. If he gets an uncontested lead, it could be curtains from a fair way out as I'd imagine Wayne won't sit quiet on him, he'll try and ramp it up before the bend and nick a few lengths, as when he was eyeballed last time out he kept finding, and he seems to have a fair bit of extra stamina that the others might be lacking in this race.

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