Monday’s Racing Tips – Sir Palamedes can plow through the mud at Windsor

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It's good to be back after a couple of days away. It wasn't a trip filled with complete relaxation as we had two kids running about like madmen, but I did manage to catch my beloved Everton win their first game in about 16 years so not all was doom and gloom!

It was a disappointing day for Rizz on Sunday as neither of his two selections were able to get the job done in their races. I missed his first selection run, however, I did catch Marlay Park who unfortunately missed the break and never really recovered from it to get competitive. I've tipped Marlay Park up myself on the thread recently, and as much as he's on a dangerous mark at present, he's seemingly struggling to take advantage of it.

Rizzel has been busy over the last couple of days and hasn't managed to complete the spreadsheet for the profit/loss. This will be posted in tomorrow's thread.

Cairnzy's Tips

Sir Palamedes 2/1 – Windsor 2.10

The ground conditions at Windsor are currently heavy, and with more rain expected overnight and into the early morning, it will be a challenge for certain horses who are not used to running in such conditions.

One horse that does have the recent form on testing conditions, and is likely to handle it better than others is the Charlie Fellowes trained Sir Palamedes. My selection comes here on the back of an impressive win at Ffos Las on heavy ground last month. I caught a quick replay of the Ffos Las run and it was hard to not be impressed with how Sir Palamedes travelled through the mud that day. As most already know, I'm not Kieran Shoemark's biggest fan but I thought he gave my selection a good ride that day. Kieran popped him out and virtually made all from start to finish. Sir Palamades had the rest of the field of the bridle a long way from home and he eased home with the minimum of fuss to win by just over 2L.

My selection is raised 5lb for that recent success, but remains a lightly raced horse having only run the six times so far in his short racing career. He's open to further progress, and with conditions seemingly in his favour, he could take some stopping if building on his most recent run at Ffos Las.

Callum Shepherd replaces Kieran Shoemark for the ride and given the current form that Callum is in, he has a great chance of adding a further win to the tally after an already great season for the young jockey.

Rizzel's Tips

Origintrail 11/1 EW – Hamilton 4.10

There are three horses in this race that I've backed this season, with Good Earth being a winning selection for the thread, Moonstone Boy was a pick earlier in the season and has since won twice after I stuck him up and Origintrail was a selection for me on her most recent start where she didn't get luck in running. I've decided to give Origintrail another go, with the drop to 5f hopefully doing the business.

There looks to be a decent amount of pace on in this race, and Hamilton can be a track which sees horses come from off the pace to be delivered late and that's what I can envisage happening with Origintrail. Ben Haslam's filly has only won twice in her career from twenty runs, but she has been unlucky on a number of occasions and that's from how they have been running her, with her needing luck in running and when you play that type of game, it is going to bite you more often than not.

The drop to 5f shouldn't be an inconvenience for her as she clearly has a lot of speed about her, as over 6f she goes through her races stylishly, so I think a very strong gallop over 5f might be better for me at this point in her career. She will more than likely come off the bridle sooner than a few, but I think given how well she finishes off over 6f, the uphill finish at Hamilton combined with the good pace and good to soft ground will play right into her strengths. She is drawn in Stall 9 of 9, so will more than likely need luck in running again if Paul Mulrennan decides to hog the rail.

She is on a very tempting handicap mark of 77. She has gone very close off this mark on a couple of occasions, including at the start of the season at Catterick, and then last year at Ripon over 5f on soft ground when missing out by a nose. She looks to be good value in this race running from a decent weight of 8st 13lbs.

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