Monday’s Racing Tips – Hollie Doyle’s trip up to Ayr looks worth it with a win on Duty First

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Rizzel ensured it wasn't a total bloodbath on Sunday, with Charyn winning in impressive style under Silvestre De Sousa and cementing himself as one of the best milers in the business.

The remaining selections performed considerably under par, in particular Cool Legend who was backed into an even money favourite and performed like a complete outsider. He doesn't look like a horse who's going to be winning anytime soon on the back of that effort and the cheekpieces seemingly had zero effort on him.

August's P/L currently stands at -3.289pts

Cairnzy's Tips

Kinetic 5/4 – Windsor 7.40

Kinetic isn't the most exciting of prices at 5/4, but looks a worthy enough favourite on paper for the James Owen yard.

Originally trained by Oliver Greenhall & Josh Guerriero, Kinetic switched hands to the James Owen yard at the start of August. He failed to get the head in front for his previous trainers but did run some creditable races in defeat, and the form of some of those races has received a boost since. A two-and-a-half length defeat into fourth at Windsor in June was a good effort, Kinetic wasn't fancied in the market that day when sent off at 25/1 but the winner City Of Delight has since boosted the form by winning his next two outings, one of which was only two days ago when bolting up by over 4L at Newmarket.

The run that stands out the most however is his effort from two runs back at Ripon in July, when finishing just under four lengths behind the winner into fourth. The eventual winner that day was Godsend from the Sir Mark Prescott yard. Godsend went on to finish runner-up on his next outing but followed up from that when winning three on the bounce and is now rated 79.

My selection seems to be improving and only went down by 1L at Yarmouth on her first outing for James Owen. This looks a weak race and with no advertised pace on show I'm hoping Callum Shepard just pops out on her and keeps things simple from a prominent position

Ayr Poet 7/1 EW – Ayr 6.15

Ayr Poet has been a bit out of sorts this season but a recent third at Carlisle suggested he might be coming to the boil, and it wasn't until around this time last year that Ayr Poet hit form, with form figures from last year reading 113213 from the 31st of July 2023 to the end of September 2023.

I caught a replay of the Carlisle run and thought Ayr Poet did well to finish as close as he did ( 2L of the eventual winner ), he came from off the pace after being poorly positioned throughout to make his challenge. He stayed on well to finish in the placings and given he's now 4lb lower than when winning at this track back in September, you'd have to say he comes here with a good chance at an attractive price of 7/1. Course form tends to be important in this game and Ayr Poet is no shy horse to Ayr, racking up 5 wins and plenty of placed efforts throughout his career. Paul Mulreenan takes over from the inexperienced Megan Davies, and he can hopefully give punters a good run for their money. Bet365 are offering 4 places in this contest, so I opted to take the horse each way.

Rizzel's Tips

Duty First 13/8 – Ayr 2.25

I echo what the betting suggests, and that this race is between the top two in the market. Both of them have shown the best level of form in this race, but I've edged towards Duty First to get off the mark on her second attempt.

Archie Watson is 1/2 at Ayr this season with his juvenile runners, and it's evident that Hollie Doyle thinks that this filly has a very good chance of beating the Karl Burke juvenile as she could've easily gone to Windsor to ride two Archie Watson horses, but instead has gone up to Ayr, mainly for this ride as she is the stable jockey, which gives me plenty of confidence given into a long way to travel.

Duty First didn't run a bad debut at the HQ of racing at Newmarket. She finished fourth of ten, which isn't bad going as the maiden races at Newmarket for 2-year-olds are often very strongly contested and will have some smart prospects going forward. The winner looked well above average and showed that again by winning at Newmarket whilst carrying a penalty, and has already been given a mark of 100 from two runs. The runner-up was strongly fancied in the market, which suggests that they must think quite a bit of her as the Godolphin winner is a lovely horse, so I think the form of this race is strong. It didn't quite go to plan on debut for Duty First as she was a bit short of room with a couple of furlongs to go when she was attempting to make some headway. I'm sure connections were thrilled with that debut run, and with a small amount of interference it would have done her the world of good to experience that, and with that experience of being on a racecourse, it should put her forward for today's outing.

It's probably not the wisest of ideas to go against a Karl Burke juvenile, but this one doesn't appear to be as ahead as some of his other runners in the stable. Shee hasn't been backed off the boards on both of her runs and though there was progress from her first run, she doesn't appear to be above average based on what we've seen.

Prince Rasam 7/1 EW – Kempton 5.00

I'm hoping that there will be no non-runners in this event as it will take away the three places on offer, and at the odds, I thought Prince Rasam was worth a few quid EW.

I can see why Prince Rasam is the price he is as the bookies are focussing on the in-form horses with the lower numbers next to their form lines, and also the horses making their handicap debuts, but I think completely ignoring Prince Rasam could come back to bite them. Obviously, you can't take the debut form of Prince Rasam too literally as he did comfortably beat Deira Mile (was 1/5F) who has since finished fourth in the Futurity Stakes Group 1 at Doncaster last October and has then gone on to finish fourth in the Epsom Derby, but it showed that Prince Rasam does have a good level of ability. This season it hasn't quite gone to plan for Prince Rasam, he was tried on turf in a Group 3 which was clearly out of his depths, and was then virtually pulled up at Chester, but he did run a lot better at Wolverhampton last time out over a trip which looked totally inadequate.

Last time out at Wolverhampton he was far too keen in the early stages, looking quite uncontrollable for Saffie Osbourne. They didn't go a great gallop in the early stages and it turned into a sprint for home which wouldn't have suited Prince Rasam who has towards the back and had already exerted a decent amount of energy when the jockey tried to control him. He went wide around the bend but did make some eye-catching ground towards the end of the race, suggesting a more thorough test of stamina would be much better for him.

Today, he encounters a new trip of 12f which is definitely worth exploring fort the son of Masar, and based on his pedigree you'd like to think this is what he needs. Michael Bell continues to be in good form, operating at a 21% SR in the last two weeks and Kevin Stott takes over in the saddle, and when they have combined this year they have a 24% SR from 24 runs which has equalled a profit of +£14.38 to £1 level stakes.

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