It was a shame to see the Aintree card get abandoned, as it was a very nice card for the start of the jumps season, but safety must come first.
Impressor 15/2 (EW, 4pl) – Redcar 3.35
There are a few in this race that enjoy the rain-softened ground, and Impressor is one of them, which is why I can't understand why he is 15/2.
Impressor is the joint oldest horse in the race, and I guess that's played a part in his price. If you look at his form on soft or heavy ground, it's ten times better than anything else. He is versatile when running over five or six furlongs, so the return to this trip is concerning me.
The majority of his wins over the years have been at Hamilton, but he has won at this track over five furlongs. When he does run well over five, he tends to stay on strongly, so a flat six-furlong on heavy ground has to be an ideal setup.
He is lingering on a good handicap mark if he's in good form, but that's to be expected at the age of nine, as he isn't the same horse he used to be. Based on how he has run this year, like at Hamilton the time before last, I think a mark of 58 is fine.
Dinah Myte 9/2 – Leicester 2.39
Leicester is also experiencing heavy ground, and that drew me towards backing Dinah Myte.
Little Tiger runs this track well, but doesn't have form on ground like this, so I can't understand the money which has arrived for him. In my opinion, Dinah Myte deserves to be the outright favourite (he is joint-favourite at the time of writing).
Dinah Myte won at this track a few runs back, and hasn't covered himself in glory since that win. However, he has won on heavy ground once before and was strong at the finish that day, and has since won nicely over 1m 2f, so combining the ground and the trip looks like a recipe for success.
Even though his handicap mark has crept up and is 4lb above his last winning mark, Ethan Tindall is in the saddle and is a 5lb claimer, meaning that he is technically below his last winning handicap mark.
The one to keep an eye out for in the market is definitely Westender, who is making his handicap debut for David Menuisier. I'm a big fan of the stable, and handicap debutantes are always worth noting and keeping an eye on if you are keen on having a bet in this race.
GambleAware