I will not be backing Running Lion again. It was always a risk, as he is an enigma, and does blow hot or cold, which I stated in the preview. But even if she was on a going day, she'd have struggled to beat the winner, who was ultra-impressive.
Galen 11/2 – Curragh 4.10
Firstly, it's great to see White Birch back on the racetrack after he has had injuries and problems once again. He was on a three-race winning streak this time last year, including a win in this exact race, so he will likely be primed for a big run, but his prep could not have been ideal, and I think you've got to take him on.
On paper, this race should be between Los Angeles and White Birch, but horse racing isn't run on paper, it's run on turf, and there is a lot of variables and things which need to be taken into account. White Birch has been off the track for nearly a year, and Los Angeles is making his first start of the new season, which has proven to be problematic for returning horses from the Aidan O'Brien stable. Most of the horses out of Ballydoyle have needed their first run, so that is why I have decided to go for Galen in this race.
This race used to be dominated by Aidan O'Brien, but in the last couple of years, we've seen a slight shift, and it has seen some upsets happen, including Visualisation from Joseph O'Brien's yard, when winning at 12/1, beating the odds-on favourite from his Dad's stable. I think there is a decent chance of the same happening today, and Galen is definitely priced up like he has a slim chance. Last time out, he produced a career-best performance, and given that he is still a four-year-old, he might only be coming into his prime now, and with the run under his belt, he will take some beating if they let him get a free lead.
The form of the win looks solid enough as he beat Jan Breughel, who was the St Leger winner and Antepost Melbourne Cup favourite. It was over a trip too short for that horse, but Galen won comfortably in the end.
Scoville 11/4 – Windsor 3.05
Vecu hasn't been progressing the way that the Gosdens would have hoped after his four runs to date, which has tempted me to take him on with the newcomer, Scoville.
William Haggas is in good form at present, and he does get many debut winners, so it's not out of this world to believe that his runner Scoville can win this on his first outing.
If Vecu were to run to the form of his runs to date, Scoville would have to produce a run worthy of a rating of around 85, and based on his pedigree, that looks more and that doable. He is a Too Darn Hot colt, out of a Group 1 winning mare who has produced a couple of useful horses, including William Haggas' ex-horse, Soulcombe, who was second in the Melbourne Cup in 2023.
Also, based on his pedigree, today's ground at Windsor should be perfect, so as long as he is ready for the run and isn't too keen, he can cause an upset.
GambleAware