Cairnzy asked to fill in for Sunday's main racing page and Lucky 15 thread. I've been busy for most of Sunday, so I am unsure how his selections performed.
Frisby 4/1 (1pt) – Perth 2.40
After a very rough last couple of weeks, I've decided to go back to my roots in the jumps racing scene.
Frisby looked interesting on chase debut for the Patrick Neville stable. Patrick does much better when his horses go over fences compared to his hurdlers. His strike rate with chasers in the last five years is at 22%, which is much better than his 12% over hurdles. Frisby is still a maiden over hurdles, but they've not decided to waste too much time and are going for fences on his fifth run over obstacles.
He could be sat on a decent handicap mark of 110 based on how easily he won on his sole Irish PTP race in December 2023. Things haven't quite gone to plan over hurdles, but he has shown enough quality to suggest he is capable of winning a race like this against some solid handicappers. Brian Hughes is on board, which isn't a total shock as he has been on board him the last two races. However, he is the stable jockey for Donald McCain, and he has opted to ride Phillip Neville's horse over his boss.
Today's competition sees three of the horses racing against each other from their last runs at this track. King Roly came out victorious in a tight finish to beat Garde Des Champs, with Lightkeeper back in third. It's odd that Sean Bowen has jumped ship to Gordon's horse, and that was enough for me to think the favourite could be taken on. Garde Des Champs is a talented horse, but he is extremely hard to win with, and isn't guaranteed to run another belter given his track record.
His pedigree also suggests he will be much better as a chaser.
Scriabin 9/1 (1pt) – Perth 3.10
It's always a gamble backing a horse with an inexperienced 10lb claimer on board, but from what I've seen from Gregor Walkingshaw, he looks solid in the saddle.
It is interesting that Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have opted for the 10lb claimer over the likes of Alan Doyle, who is a stable 5lb claimer. However, they might have felt to get as much weight off this horse as possible to get revenge over Break Point, who beat him recently. The Olly Murphy horse beat my selection in a maiden, but it was much closer than the finishing margins suggested, with the winner only pulling away inside the final 50 furlongs.
Considering there is now a 15lb weight difference, that could be more than enough to swing it in our favour.
The Last Cloud is short enough in the market based on the form of his recent wins. Last time out he didn't beat great horses, and has been put up in the handicap by a fair chunk.
GambleAware