Firebird didn't seem up to the task on her first start of the season, and it's even more frustrating that Paddy Twomey had a winner in the Listed race just after, as I was also looking at that one.
It's probably best to go with your gut when it comes to racing and having a bet, and I do try and stick to that, but sometimes I second-guess myself. Thankfully, the horse which did win wasn't massive odds, but it's still not great to miss out.
Rizzel's tips
Barefoot Warrior 5/4 – Redcar 3.27
I'm going to give the UK flat racing a crack for Monday's racing. The first horse I like the look of is Barefoot Warrior from the David O'Meara stable.
There are a few older horses who are on attractive marks and can easily return to form, but I think it's best to go with a progressive horse who could be ahead of the handicapper and that's why I decided to opt for Barefoot Warrior.
My selection is two from three and is making his handicap debut off a mark of 87. This handicap mark doesn't make this easy on his seasonal reappearance, but from what we've seen from this horse so far, he looks a nice prospect for David O'Meara and it would not surprise me if we see this lad competing in the big handicaps over a mile during the summers months at the big festivals.
The form of his races to date looks strong in comparison to today's opposition. He was behind Bobby Bennu and Germanic on his debut; both of those horses are rated 97 and 95, and even the horse back in fourth is rated in the mid-90s. Last time out at Newcastle he got up close to the line beating Baraq, and that horse has since won twice and finished as a runner-up on his latest start, now being 11lbs higher than when Barefoot Warrior beat him, and my selection was 7lbs heavier than him that day, so it rates as a smart performance. That day, he was also ahead of Classic Encounte,r who is in today's race and is effectively better off at the weights today, so it's hard to envisage a 3L swing from that horse today unless he really enjoys the ground/track.
Without Burlington 10/1 EW – Redcar 3.57
In theory, this race should be an easy day at the office for the 2/9 odds-on favourite Convergent, and it might be, but I did think Without Burlington offered value in the each-way market, with a place being definitely possible and a small chance of the upset.
What I've just said might sound ludicrous of an upset being on the cards, as my selection ran to an RPR of 45 on his racecourse debut back in December, and when you compare that to the favourite who recorded an RPR of 92, there is night and day between them. However, the favourite won on soft ground, which is extremely different from the conditions he faces today. The pedigree of Without Burlington also suggests he is much better than what he showed last time out.
He is by Without Parole and out of a mare who has produced Sea The Boss, a Group 3 winner on good ground over 10f for Jessica Harrington. He did attract a small amount of market support on his racecourse debut, but he was far too keen to showcase any of his ability, so with that experience under his belt, I think he can definitely show much more this time and on ground and over a trip which is sure to suit.
The rest of this field don't look great, so if he can run into the places at a bare minimum, it will secure a small amount of profit.
Kevin Philipart De Foy has a decent record at this track, which also gives the impression that they think he can run with credit.
Lechuga Lad 5/2 – Redcar 4.27
Though James Fanshawe's record at Redcar in the last five years has seen him record 0 winners, his overall record since he took out his licence reads at a 20% SR, so I thought his sole runner on the card was a good bet.
Kaiya Fraser takes the ride, and it's still daylight robbery that he can claim 3lbs, as he is a wonderful young prospect who is definitely a jockey to keep an eye on when his claim does go. I think he can go right to the top. He takes off 3lbs and puts Lechuga Lad onto a mark of 67, which makes this horse an attractive bet off an attractive mark for his first run on turf.
He should enjoy the step uip in trip, as he recorded a career best RPR of 75 when stepped up to the extended 1m 1f at Wolverhampton last month, and his pedigree would suggest this extra half furlong will be to his liking, as he is by Territories and is out of a mare who stayed 2m, so it is likely he will continue to go up in trip as the season progresses.
GambleAware