Cairnzy's runner in the John Durkan was very backed in from 40/1 into around 12/1 but looked very tired jumping the last couple of fences when the classy horses kicked on. It was a great race to watch, and the Gold Cup winner will likely come from that race, whether that is the winner or Galopin Des Champs time will tell.
Rizzel's Tips
Shantou Express 11/4 – Kempton 2.00
Kempton is expecting some big showers in the early morning of Monday, so the ground will likely turn to soft, as long as the forecasts are correct. Soft ground isn't a guarantee positive for my selection Shantou Express, but he has form on the ground enough to suggest he will be fine and I think his recent form, matched with the trainer form, makes him one of the key players.
I don't think this race is too strong, as Icare Allen will not be turning up having won yesterday, which leaves the rest of the field not being the best. The top weight comes into this race in decent form with two wins and a runner-up finish next to his name, but they were in much weaker races, and though I've said this isn't the strongest of races, this rates harder.
Shantou Express is getting on in age but has started to show glimpses of his older pieces of form, albeit not at the same level. This season he has run twice, the first being a pipe opener but on his last start he was much better when losing by half a length to Getalead who has since franked the form by winning last time out in a Class 3 hurdle race off a 6lb higher mark than when beating Shantou Express.
In his pomp, Shantou Express was rated 133 and a couple of years ago he won a novice hurdle race by 12L on soft ground, beating a decent horse into second spot, so his mark of 114 is definitely on the low side now he appears to have rekindled the fire.
Kim Bailey is having a great start to the season, mainly with his chasers, but the well-being of his horses is top-notch at the moment and he has had five winners in the last fortnight at a 31% SR.
King William Rufus 10/3 – Kempton 3.45
Racing is a complicated game, especially when deciding whether to go with recent form or previous form and having a horse on a dangerous mark, for this race I've gone for the former and I am giving King William Rufus a chance after shaping well until the final 2f at Newbury.
On their day, a fair few of the horses which line up for today's race could win this. Lutrell Lad was the other horse I did take a second look at as he is proven on soft ground and with a decent 6lb claimer on board, that puts him on a dangerous mark. However, the two runs this season for King William Rufus have been to a good level and I think back on a sharp track like Kempton, which suits front running horses, he could finally get his head back in front after hitting the crossbar the last two times. The way he went through the race Newbury was very eye-catching and other than the winner, every other horse was flagging a long way from home when King William Rufus was still on the bridle.
He has to prove he is able to run on soft ground, but he has handled good to soft well enough to suggest ground which is slightly deeper isn't going to be a concern.
Both the jockey and trainer are in good form, especially the jockey who is 3/7 in the last 14 days.
