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After 6 placed selections in a row, the weekend was quite disappointing. There is no such thing as form, so no excuses, simply taking chances and coming up short which is something I can hopefully fix in the coming week. Nastasiya summed things up, she looked certain to at least place before falling 2 out.
There is plenty of racing on Monday which can often spread my attention too thin but given the poor couple of days, I've dug a little deeper in an attempt to get us back on track.
Attacanter's Tips –
Bossy Parker 11/2 four places – 19.00 Wolverhampton
My typical selection process of late is to search for extra place races, or those with the biggest priced favourites, they are typically harder races to decipher but the constraints this position comes with basically leave me no other choice. I'd certainly like the option to use skybet or even post in the morning, but it is what it is.
Ismail Mohammed had a winner on Saturday, his market leader in this won here last time, I thought he was worth taking on under a penalty given he's now upped a furlong and the rest of the field are each-way prices.
There are a fair few C&D winners in this with others having run well too, which should ensure a competitive affair, the four I am deciding from are the 3, 4, 5 and 9, all similarly priced with similar chances but it is Boss Parker that I am happy to chance.
The horse is lightly raced enough being just a four-year-old, purchased from Johnny Murtagh last summer, the horse went off a cliff being rated in the low 90s, Stella got him down to 55 before he was winning, that was in February this year over C&D, he was raised 5lbs and went in again a month later. The horse is back to 56 and should be getting competitive under a jockey who has only recently started riding for the trainer.
His first ride for here was actually with this horse over 6f at this track last time, the horse clearly prefers 7 furlong but that form actually looks pretty nice. His only other two riders were also at this track, placing both times, all being well – the horse seemingly has strong place claims.
Libor Lad 9/1 – 17.02 Stratford
This selection is relatively chancy, but I was very close to including a 33/1 shot from Ireland based on a whim, so I'm happy to stick with him in the hope he can hit the ground running from a 6 month absence, off near-top weight, in a completely new discipline. All of these are red flags but as I keep saying, until we really need to baton down the hatches, I am happy to take chances.
The horse had a very good campaign last year, his first season over the obstacles, I like this trainer a lot, and he will be of interest in a good few staying contests this season. His best win last February was off 8lbs lower, which is yet another potential fly in the ointment, but he won by 10 lengths and although failing when hiked up in the ratings, you can never read too much into end-of-season races.
The trainer had a 1-2 here last November, with this horse finishing 2nd to his 50/1 stablemate, which shows he at least won't mind the course. He hasn't sent too many out recently, his last winner came all the way back in May, but that horse was coming off a similar break. His latest runner was 3rd of 12 yesterday, the horse's profile was similar to today's selection, and he was making his chase debut off a 6 month break, which is at least some kind of silver lining.
Elforleather 10/1 five places – 16.35 Yarmouth
The price of this horse surprised me, it suggests his form lines don't really live up to some of the others but I am more than happy to throw him in here.
The selection is almost the epitome of consistency, only finishing out of the places in 3 of his 12-rated races. He was a short head from going 3-3 in August, he was upped in trip at a testing track finishing 6th, which can easily be forgiven, if back on track here, he is certainly overpriced.
The form from that 2nd at Ffos Las looks pretty pleasing without outlaying it all for you, that was underlined given he won over the same C&D 8 days later, Dibble Dibble was 1.25 lengths back in 2nd and comes here today 3lbs better off. The 3rd and 4th have both won since.
He was then sent to Windsor, off a mark of 58 when going in again, the 2nd and 3rd both came out immediately after and won too. He comes here today only 2lbs higher, he would certainly benefit from more testing conditions but can definitely get involved on what he's shown so far.
Alafdhal 11/2 four places – 13.52 Pontefract
Early market vibes aren't overly strong but we have enough places for that not to be a concern. I used an old method to discount most of the runners in this, one I don't often have time to do when ‘out of office' during the week. Four of those I shortlisted are from the seven single-figure price runners with Biographer being the only outsider.
Tim Easterby holds a strong hand in this, Music Society could well feature on his best whilst Jason Hart takes a rare ride which I suppose is down to Duran Fentiman being injured. Ghathanfar, a horse Hart often does well on hasn't won for over 2 years but is 26lbs below his peak rating from last year.
My selection has been running consistently of late, three 2nds in a row off effectively today's mark including one over today's C&D implies if being kept up to his work, he can claim a place at least. His last success was also over today's C&D when rated 7lbs higher back in April, the horse was very heavily tried last winter on the AW but I don't see any reason why he won't be fully trying turned out again just 5 days since his run at Catterick.
*Advised Bet – Eachway L15*
WHAT IS A LUCKY 15 BET?
A Lucky 15 bet consists of 15 unique bets, covering every possible combination that comes from backing four selections. The 15 bets are broken down like this:
– 1 fourfold accumulator
– 4 trebles, with each treble omitting one of your selections
– 6 doubles, again covering every possible combination
– 4 singles
The attraction of a Lucky 15 is that it offers many more ways to win than a standard accumulator. A Lucky 15 uses both your acca and your singles as well as producing trebles and doubles that reward you for correctly calling 2/4 or 3/4 of your selections. To cover the 15 separate bets, a Lucky 15 uses your stake 15 times. If you were to place £1 on a Lucky 15, you would be staking £15 in total across the various bets.
Keep the faith
When it comes to horse racing I give the form more attention than the price as the price is only for the bookies…if it mattered we’d all be rich