I already mentioned on the main thread that Rizz swerved the Lucky 15 thread on Sunday due to a lack of meetings and, more so, the fact he didn’t fancy much.
There are more meetings on offer on Monday, so I’ve offered to throw up a Lucky 15 thread to cover yesterday's.
Tension 7/2 – Southwell 2.30
There are plenty in here with chances, and I was initially tempted by the Sir Mark Prescott trained Desert Belle. That one got off the mark when first upped to 1m4 at this very same venue back in April. Since then she has remained consistent but hasn’t been able to get her head back in front over that distance since. She has looked in need of further, and this step up to 1m6 looks the right move, but at the prices I preferred to take her on.
The horse I’ve gone with is Tension, who has young Billy Loughnane on board for the ride. Tension took a while to get off the mark but did so last time out over 1m3 at Yarmouth. That win did come in a Class 6, so the form is hardly anything to get excited about, but she stayed on strongly late on to get up on the line that day, suggesting she had much more in the tank and that this step up in trip will suit perfectly.
March Lilly 11/4 – Ayr 2.15
Given the fact the market favourite has been withdrawn the last two times due to fast ground, I think you have to take her in. The forecast ground at present is down as good to firm and despite Ayr expecting a small amount of rain tomorrow, I think the ground will remain on the faster side.
Even money seems a tad short for Karl Burke's runner, and the value play in my eyes is the Kevin Ryan trained March Lilly. My selection has only run the one time, and I thought her debut effort was quite good, and connections will feel there were plenty of positives to take from that effort. The form of that contest has also been boosted, with the second winning next time out at Epsom.
Supremissy 9/2 – Ayr 4.45
Doon The Glen is probably a worthy favourite on paper for the jockey and trainer combination of Jim Goldie and Paul Mulreenan.
At the prices, I was more interested in the unexposed Supremissy. My selection arrives here on the back of a nice victory last time out at Musselburgh. That win came in a Class 6 contest over the same advised distance of 5f. She only did just enough to win on that occasion but a 2lb rise looks fair, and I think she can continue progressing at this sort of level.
Jim Goldie's other runner, Summerstorms Dream, was another I looked at. Apprentice jockey Lauren Young has done well this term, and she looks good value for her 5lb claim. Summerstorms Dream is yet to win a race but is in receipt of some weight from her rivals and looks to be going somewhat the right way.
Witches Familiar 6/4 – Galway 5.10
I opted to throw in a selection from the jumps meeting and the one that I thought was a safe enough bet was the Willie Mullins-trained Witches Familiar.
As most already know, Willie does well with his French imports and his charge here in Witches Familiar wasted no time in getting off the mark for her new yard at Ballinrobe back in May.
I caught a replay of her run at Ballinrobe and it was clear as day that Willie had her well schooled. She jumped beautifully the entire race and never looked in trouble. Willie has a good record in the race, winning 7 of the last 12 runnings.
GambleAware