The Racing League continued to be a thorn in my backside during this summer.
I was sweet on the chances of Criminal, but he was a non-runner in the morning, which left us with one selection.
Philanthropist ran his race at Southwell and ran to form, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed. I thought how he ran at Southwell just over a week ago was definitely worthy of him being the favourite, but he didn't pick up when Daniel Muscutt applied the pressure. He travelled better last time out, and he looked very one-paced under the Muscutt drive, which saw him finish in third place.
Persuasion 14/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Thirsk 4.08
Looking at the early odds, I cannot let Persuasion go unbacked at odds of 18/1. We know what to expect from this horse; he is not unexposed, and he comes with his usual style of running. However, he has run in every renewal of this race, so it's evidently a race they like to target.
Persuasion managed to win this race two years ago off a 3lb lower mark, and finished third off a 1lb lower mark in last year's race. He then managed to win off 87 in the race after at Haydock, so we know he can win races off in and around this handicap mark, also shown his win earlier this season at Musselburgh.
From his class 3 win at Musselburgh earlier in the season, he recorded a decent RPR of 97. Thirsk is expecting a small amount of rain, so the ground will probably ride on the slower side of good, which is ideal for Persuasion. His best form in recent years has come on good to soft ground. I don't think he's got much room for movement off his handicap mark, but he's a very solid horse who should be hitting the frame, as long as he gets a clear run from the rear.
Something Splendid 7/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Sandown 4.58
With Sandown watering the track and a few showers expected to land, I think that gives Something Special a decent chance in this race despite going up in grade.
He won his first race on the ninth attempt last time out at Newmarket on the July course. I thought he did well to win considering the leader got an easy time of things on the front, and that track suits horses who race prominently. Something Splendid was held up, but when Billy Loughnane asked him to go after the leader, he obliged and stayed on powerfully.
The handicapper saw it as a decent effort, and as a result, he has put him up 6lbs in the handicap. That makes life a lot tougher, as does the higher quality of horses he races against in this Class 4, but he left the impression that he is open to further progress.
He gets on well with juice in the ground, shown by winning on good to soft last time out, and with the ground likely to be similar this time, he is good value at 7/1.
GambleAware