Friday’s Racing Tips – Royal Ascot placed No Half Measures can strike in a lower class race at Newmarket

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Cairnzy ensured it was a profitable day for the thread by landing a lovely 10/1 winner on the Oisin Murphy ridden Sergeant Wilko. Oisin didn't mess around, he took the bull by the horns and went from the front and kept it simple and the horse just kept rolling.

Both of Rizzel's horses weren't great, with Ain't Nobody running a stinker at Newmarket. Special Wan ran okay, but in hindsight, it was going to be a tough ask to beat the winner who looks like a Group 1 filly in the making.

Apologies in advance for Friday's thread going live late. I've been swamped today with bits and bobs and have had very little time to do any study for Friday's racing. Thank you to Rizz who has kindly covered an extra selection. I owe you one!! 

Cairnzy's Tips

Heavens Gate 13/8 – Newmarket 2.25

The opening price for Heavens Gate is long gone and had I not been busy, I may of gotten the selection up at a better price in time for you all. Regardless, I still think the 13/8 that is available with most firms is worthy of a play in this contest.

Trainer Aiden O'Brien has a decent strike rate in this Group 2 contest having won in it 2016 and 2017. His runner this year Heavens Gate is the one to beat on paper and she should take all the beating if replicating her previous run in the Albany. She was ridden prominently by jockey Wayne Jordan throughout the race and was only nabbed close home by her impressive stable mate Fairy Godmother, who was given an absolute peach of a ride by Ryan Moore. If you missed the race live, check out the replay as it was probably the ride of the festival.

Mountain Breeze who reopposes in this contest, was over 2L behind my selection in the Albany and with more improvement expected for Heavens Gate, I can't see the form being reversed in this instance. Current ground conditions should be no issue for Heavens Gate either and with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle, it's hard to look past her.

Rizzel's Tips

Fairbanks 9/2 – Newmarket 3.00

Oisin Murphy is riding out of his skin, which is not a great surprise as he is a multiple Group 1 winning jockey and has won the jockey's championship in recent years, but there looks to be a real bit between his teeth at the minute and he definitely gives his horses the best chances of winning, which is a great sign for Fairbanks who I like for this race.

This 4-year-old son of Nathaniel could easily still be improving and if you can look past his most recent run, which wasn't a bad run at all, he has been running well and looks to be on the up. They are attempting 1m 6f for the first time with him which is an unknown, but his pedigree suggests it could be better for him as he is by Nathaniel and out of a Saddler's Wells mare who is the same sire who produced the great Galileo, who we all know produced some legendary staying horses.

Time is still on Fairbanks' side as he is still a young pup at four years of age, and it's nice to see that he has a healthy strike rate of four wins from seven attempts since moving into handicap company. The Hamilton run was a good effort when he finished as runner-up to Dark Moon Rising who was in receipt of 12lbs from Fairbanks. That horse has since finished second to Cairnzy's winning selection, Sea King at Ayr a couple of days ago.

This race doesn't really look to be as strong as it might appear to be on paper. A lot of the horses aren't turning up in great form, and there are questions over the trip and handicaps marks for many, with the ground potentially not being in the favour of others as well. Fox Journey was interesting as he is 2/2 at Newmarket, but that came on the Rowley Mile, so even though the tracks are literally minutes from each other, does it translate across, I guess we'll find out, but he was my idea of the main threat.

No Half Measures 2/1 – Newmarket 5.20

Ryan Moore doesn't have an outstanding strike rate when riding for Richard Hughes, but he's still the best in the business and given he's got the call for this horse and has jocked George Rooke off suggests they really fancy their chances for this race with No Half Measures.

Richard Hughes has been having a tremendous flat campaign so far, mostly on the AW, but his 3yo filly of Cable Bay has done nothing but improve. She has won three races from her six career starts and put in her best run to date at Royal Ascot in the Palace Of Holyrood Stakes Class 2 handicap last time out. Every race at Royal Ascot is extremely difficult to win, but the handicaps are on another level as every trainer tries to get their horses to that meeting in prime condition and on very good handicap marks to exploit, so the fact that this filly finished third shows the level of horse we are dealing with. She did very well to finish third given the circumstances of the race as she did a lot of the donkey work in her group, leading the entire race until being headed in the final furlong, and the track position she had clearly wasn't an advantage based on where the other horses in her group finish compared to the others. The horse second in her group finished 11th (favourite for the race) and the third in the group of six finished 16th, but came out and finished second to Cairnzy's tip at Newmarket yesterday, showing that he was on the wrong side of the track and that boosts No Half Measures because she went so close to winning the race from her track position.

My selection clearly handles any ground as the run at Royal Ascot was good to firm and she has previously won on soft ground at Goodwood and ran a good race on good to soft in a Listed race at Sandown the time before last, where she didn't get total clear run. The handicapper hasn't butchered her and has only put her up 1lb for her most recent run, which looks lenient based on how I'm reading that performance and in this weaker race she should have a very good chance of getting back in the winner's enclosure.

I did think that Hedge Fund was of interest with Oisin in the saddle. Oisin has only ridden once for William Muir & Chris Grassick, and with him riding the way he has, combined with the first-time blinkers, they must be expecting a big run.

Mousey Brown  7/2 – Kilbeggan 7.55

For my third selection of the day we head to Ireland for the Kilbeggan Midlands National Handicap Chase. My selection is towards the bottom of the weights, with Mousey Brown running off 10st 3lbs.

You can make a case for plenty in this race, which is normal for a National race, but I kept coming back to Dermot A McLoughlin's horse Mousey Brown and I do think he has a very nice chance of winning this race, as the odds would suggest. It is frustrating that he is the favourite for this as I was hoping was slightly bigger odds, but he has the profile to win a race of this nature and win it well. This is a step up in grade for Mousey Brown, with his wins coming in handicaps at a lower level, but based on how he beat a very solid yardstick in Railway Hurricane last time out at Punchestown is a very good indicator of the level of horse we are dealing with and one who could easily be ahead of the handicapper. The Cromwell horse I've just mentioned has run in many big races this year and has been running consistently well in tough handicaps at Cheltenham and in Ireland. He was second to Idalko Bihoue and third to Ginny's Destiny, yet Mousey Brown blew him out of the water and Railway Hurricane did run to form according to RPRs, so it was an impressive win for Dermot A McLoughlin's horse.

The main questions for my selection is whether he can cope with the step up in class and whether the return to 3m will suit him. My answer for both of those is simply yes. He has won a Listed hurdles race earlier this year, so we know he is capable of mixing it at a good level, albeit over hurdles, and to further that point, that listed win came over 3m on heavy ground. This race will have been the plan for a while as Dermot likes to have runners in this race and runners with good chances. He won this race a few years ago with Freewheelin Dylan, and he puts two in this race today, but with Paddy riding my horse he looks to be the pick of the two.

Amirite kept drawing my attention for the in-form Henry De Bromhead stable as he is a strong traveller and has run some good races, most recently at Sandown in the 3m 4f Bet365 Gold Cup where he looked to be a huge player turning for home, but his stamina didn't quite last. His jumping can be iffy, and at this tight track with a short run-in, you're going to want to be foot-perfect when it matters and with his stamina doubts, that was enough to avoid him.

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