Friday’s Racing Tips – Principality can bounce back to form at Listed level at Newbury

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Salamanca City was a winning tip for Cairnzy on Thursday after letting him down previously on her previous outing. She travelled well throughout the race and picked up well when asked to go and win.

Rizzel's pair of runners didn't manage to get a win. Lermoos Legend was well-supported at Worcester but was beaten into second place by the rank outsider of the bunch at 20/1. Royal Dream didn't kick on from his last run and looked leggy entering the final furlong when getting the gaps needed.

Cairnzy's Tips

Mrs Twig 4/1 – 4.45 Newbury

This is a good-looking class 3 handicap and claims can be made for most of this field. Divine Presence who heads the market for the Gosdens is a bit short in my opinion. Don't get me wrong, there is a lot to like about the Gosden runner. She's in receipt of weight and has improved for each run this season, opening her account on handicap debut most recently when getting up on the line to win by a neck.

Mrs Twig looks like a good alternative to take on the market leader and I feel she represents a bit of value at double the price. She was unable to land any sort of blow last season, failing to get her head in front in seven outings. She was given a 190-day break and has returned with a bang this season, looking like a completely different horse.

On her seasonal reappearance at Kempton in April she managed to break her maiden, making up some nice headway in the straight before going clear in the final furlong to win by 1L. She then made a switch to the turf at Newbury on her following outing, finishing three and a half lengths back in fourth. She quickly returned to winning ways when returning to the AW at Kempton, winning cosily in the end by four and a half lengths to Gold Aura. She returned a month later at Newmarket to win again by half a length in a class 3 fillies handicap. She beat home some higher-rated horses from strong stables that day, Alhattan and Precious Jewel to name a couple.

She looks worth sticking with in her current form and there's every reason to believe she can continue progressing this season. Tom Marquand has ridden her the last three outings and retains the ride for this race which is another positive to note.

English Harbour 15/8 – Newmarket 5.50

This looks like an interesting class 4 contest and should be informative for races in the future. You can make claims for quite a few of these and that's before mentioning the unraced George Boughey runner, who has already been backed from 9s into 6s.

The Roger Varian-trained English Harbour looks the most solid bet and although 15/8 isn't that exciting of a price, he brings the best form to the table and is open to further improvement having only run the two times. His runner-up effort on debut behind Almaqam is by far the strongest piece of form on offer. He finished just over a length behind that one at Yarmouth on debut and Almaqam has boosted the form by winning next time out at listed level at Royal Ascot. So Deuce and Campaign Medal who also contested at Yarmouth that day have also gone on to win races.

My selection then finished fourth at Doncaster on his next outing, finishing one place of the reopposing Sword. After watching a replay of the race it's safe to say the finishing position doesn't tell the whole story. English Harbour had some early trouble in running and when the race suddenly turned into a sprint he was in no ideal position to lay down a proper challenge. Not a lot separates English Harbour and Sword in the market but given Sword has gone on to disappoint next time out, I can easily see my selection reversing the placings.

Rizzel's Tips

Rosy Affair 4/1 – Newmarket 7.00

This looks like a really competitive 6f sprint race, contested by the fillies, and you could probably write off two horses at a push. Despite it being a tough handicap, I believe Rosy Affair still has more to give at this trip and is still ahead of the handicapper.

George Boughey's 3-year-old daughter of Havana Grey has won three of her five career runs, with the other two runs resulting in runner-up finishes. She is a progressive filly and their choice to revert back to 6f for the first since time February appeared to be the correct decision as she put in a career-best performance to win over today's C&D, putting in a clear career-high RPR mark. She hit the line strongly that day, which bodes well for her run today at this track as conditions aren't as quick as they were last time out, which will put more emphasis on stamina.

She beat Ananda by a neck last time out, and I'd say that is up there with being the best form on offer in this race. The runner-up has shown good pieces of form this season and was runner-up to a horse called Nighteyes (was giving 5lb to the winner) and that horse has since finished third in a Listed race behind Adaay In Devon who has since finished second in a Group 3, with the runner-up of the Listed race winning the same Group 3 that Adaay In Devon was second. Ananda was giving away 11lb to Rosy Affair when finishing a neck behind, and today she is carrying 8lbs more, so she is 3lb better off. On paper, you'd think 3lb difference for a neck defeat probably swings it in favour of the Gosden horse, but horse racing doesn't always work like that and Rosy Affair is clearly progressing and I think there's more to come, so she can confirm the form with Ananda.

I can see why there will be money for the Godolphin runner, Enchanted Life, but she's not for me. She is 2/2, but her figures suggest she didn't exactly improve too much from start to start, even though she did win with ease at Pontefract. The form doesn't look particularly strong, and without William Buick in the saddle, I think you've got to look elsewhere.

Principality 5/2 – Newbury 4.10

From what we've seen from this field, Principality has the best form in the book and if you can forgive him for his lacklustre performance at the Curragh, he looks a solid bet in this Listed race at Newbury.

Prior to the Curragh, where things didn't go as planned, Principality had shown good pieces of form from his two runs. He made a very nice impression on debut at Newmarket when finishing second to Ancient Truth, who appears to be the main hope for Charlie Appleby's yard in the 2000 Guineas next year. That horse won the Superlative Stakes on the July course on the weekend just gone and did it in taking fashion at odds of 4/6F, producing an RPR of 107 and that took his record to a perfect 3/3. Principality was 1.5L behind him on debut, and obviously, you can't take that form too literally as horse racing maths doesn't work like that, but the others in that race have boosted the form as well, so it does stack up well. The third has finished as runner-up on his next start and the fourth has won twice since and recorded a peak RPR of 90.

After his debut run, Richard Hannon's juvenile, son of Calyx, went on to win at Goodwood when he was expected to as he went off as 1/2F under Oisin Murphy. The form of that race has also been boosted, as the third-placed horse has since finished second to Whistlejacket at Newmarket last weekend in a Group 2. The fourth-placed horse has won a maiden since, but won it by 4L and to top it off the fifth-placed horse won on his next start.

Last time out at the Curragh, it didn't go to plan from the beginning. He was clearly overhauled by the day, as travelling can be strenuous for young horses and when he was in the stalls he was playing up, and evidently it wasn't his day that day. However, I think you've got to look past that, as the form speaks for itself, and if the real Principality shows us now he's back on UK shores, he could be a tough nut to crack.

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