Friday’s Racing Tips – Lion’s Pride has the form to make mincemeat of the Listed field at Sandown

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Mary's Pride was the standout runner on Thursday as he managed to land Rizzel a nice 10/1 winner (1op rule 4). It was a confident ride and it was nice to see the jockey take a positive position as in those big-field events, it can be very difficult to come from off the pace. The horse travelled beautifully throughout and when Kieran Buckley asked him to go and win his race, he had plenty under the bonnet.

Aside from that, I hope some of you saw the ride that Patrick Mullins gave Rizzel's bumper runner at Tipperary. The horse lost by a length but must've run two furlongs further than every other horse in the race. Crazy ride.

Cairnzy's Tips

Quickthorn 13/8 – Sandown 4.50

A few familiar faces in this class one line up, however, If I'm being honest, I'm slightly disappointed in the turnout for this contest. Seven go to post but with forecast ground currently good to firm, the likelihood is Trueshan will be a non-runner. I may be wrong, but we've seen it time and time again throughout the years so I'll not hold my breath.

The lack of runners in this field means only two places are on offer, which sort of rules out having an each-way play. I personally only lay a bet each way if there are three or more places on offer but again, everyone is different.

I think Quickthorn is a solid play in this contest and he is clearly fancied in the market at 13/8. Trueshan is currently 9/4, however, if Trueshan becomes a non-runner then you'll probably see Quickthorn's price shorten to around even money or 5/4.

Quickthorn is one of my favourite stayers in the game, his positive and aggressive front-running style will always give punters a run for their money. Of course, the most memorable run was his victory in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup where he slipped the field by around 20L and ended up winning by around 6L. A shock victory or pure genius by jockey Tom Marquand? I'll leave that up to you to decide.

My selection was below par in his return to action at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes. I'm more than happy to draw a line through that run, it came after eight months off the track and he was also unable to go forward and use his front-running tactics on that occasion. From looking at this field of runners, I see no pace angle into this race besides my selection and I can see Tom Marquand bouncing out and trying to make all. Hopefully, the Ascot run has blown away any cobwebs and Quickthorn can get back to winning ways.

Aegean Sea 3/1 – Sandown 3.40

Ryan Moore only has two rides at Sandown on Friday and I thought his ride on Aegean Sea was his best chance throughout the day.

The ranting and raving seems to revolve around the market leader Anno Domini in this contest. There's no doubt he looked a nice type for connections when winning on debut at Newbury but I was just a bit sceptical on the form of the race.

Although the fourth has since won, the second and third have been soundly beaten on their following runs. Wild Clary who finished second to Anno Domini by a quarter of a length was sent off an odds-on favourite in a class 4 maiden at Salisbury and was beaten by a length and a quarter on the day. Invited who finished a length down in third to Anno Domini has had two further bites of the cherry without success, finishing second and third in his following two runs.

For the reasons mentioned above, I'm happy to take on the Godolphin runner with Aegean Sea who looks a worthy alternative at a better price. Aegean Sea made an encouraging start to his career when finishing third on debut at this very same track. I thought my selection ran well that day and there were definitely more positives to take from the run than negatives. He travelled in midfield throughout and got stuck behind a wall of horses before making his challenge late on before it was all too late. It took a while for him to pick up but he made up some nice ground in the final furlong when the penny dropped and he should come on plenty for that experience.

Rizzel's Tips

Melton Mossy 11/2 – Newton Abbot 2.50

I am a jumps man through and through, so whenever there is a decent race during the summer I'll have a nosey and Newton Abbot has a Class 3 race for Friday, which is a nice little race for a Summer card.

Virtually every horse arrives at Newton Abbot in good form, with only one horse not being placed in the first two places on their previous race, and that is Manor Park, who is undoubtedly the most out-of-form horse in the race. A quick mention on the horse just named as he has dropped to a handy mark and has got a very good claimer on board today. He has good course form, shown by winning at this venue last year off a 6lb higher mark. He is priced up at big odds for a reason, but you can't fully rule him out given his previous form.

The main horses you'd think would be competing for the win are Jumeirah King, Carrigeen Kampala, Finest View and my selection for the race, Melton Mossy. Jumeirah King is a four-year-old and is lightly raced in comparison to most of the field, so will be fancied to run well from a low weight. However, he has only won a maiden hurdle and the form of that race doesn't look to be anything special. He is effectively 5lb well in with him carrying a 7lb penalty, but I don't rate the form. Similar views apply to Carrigeen Kampala who is racing off a 9lb higher mark for her recent win in a mares race, on paper she is 6lb heavier, but the 3lb claimer who was on board last time out isn't riding this time. Winning a mares race is completely different to racing against the geldings, especially when she has to carry 12st. Outside of my fancy, I did think the main danger was from Finest View as when she was originally trained by Alan King she was a useful horse. She had previously won four races on the bounce when trained by Alan during his first stint with the horse, and she was rated as high as 131, with a win coming off 127 in a Class 3 to make her a 2x Class 3 winner. She has changed trainers a couple of times and is back with Alan King, running off a reduced mark. Tom Cannon has been operating at a 44% SR in the last 14 days, so is riding very well.

Despite Finest View having decent claims for this race, I've been swayed into backing Melton Mossy. I saw this horse win for Laura Horsfall when the horse was the subject of a big gamble on handicap debut. It wasn't a surprise to see a change in form when the money was down as this horse cruised through the race and arguably won with more authority than the winning distance suggested. He has since moved to Evan Williams (new owners) and he managed to win on stable debut, with probably the same amount of ease as the race before. Evan Williams does very well with these types of horses, so it's eye-catching that they are running this horse up in grade by two classes (won 2x Class 5 and is now in a Class 3), as they must feel he is miles ahead of the handicapper as he will have to be as he is 6lb out of the handicap by racing in this race, but they must be confident in landing this decent 10k pot.

Lion's Pride 15/8 – Sandown 4.15

There is some decent racing at Sandown on Friday, but only Lion's Pride stood out to me as a worthwhile bet. This is a good renewal of this Class 1 Listed race, but if there is a horse who could blow them away, it's the John & Thady Gosden horse.

Savvy Victory won this race last year and he looks primed for a great attempt of doing the back-to-back on the back of his fourth-placed effort at Royal Ascot. Given that the race at Ascot was his first run of the season, it seems like this race has been their main aim, and the Ascot run was more of a ‘hit and hope' and a fitness run, but if he was to go on and win, they wouldn't have been complaining. He is a good horse on his day, he is consistent for the most part and will be a tough nut to crack as he will be primed for today's race, but it would disappoint me if Lion's Pride wasn't good enough to beat him.

Lion's Pride has the best form in this race, and it's not even close. If you look at his recent two runs, you'll look through and see form boost after form boost. On his seasonal reappearance, he finished third at Kempton and finished behind Dubai Honour, who has since won a Group 1 in France and Okeechobee who has since won a Group 3 on his next start. Going back to late last year, Lion's Pride beat Measured Time. The Godolphin horse who was the runner-up has since won twice at Meydan, including a Group 2 and a Group 1, as well as a Group 1 in America. Furthermore, Bellocio, who was in third that day has since moved to Willie Mullins and came back to the UK to win a Royal Ascot race. The form lines of Lion's Pride look bulletproof, the main question is whether this horse can repeat those levels of form on turf, as the runs were on the all-weather at Kempton. Also, Sandown will more than likely have soft in the description in some capacity, so whether he'll handle the ground is another question, but at the odds, I think he is definitely worth a try as if he is fine with all of the above, he should take some beating.

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