Scandinavian was very impressive in the opening race at Newmarket, which was something I wasn't expecting.
The O'Brien horse turned on the jets inside the final furlong and pulled eight lengths clear of my selection in the race. Three furlongs from home, I thought Nightime Dancer was going to pass the eventual winner, but the winner had plenty up his sleeve. Good performance by the favourite, but at what level, I'm not sure.
Arabian Story was evidently out of his depth; he ran an okay race, but got left behind. The winner did it very nicely and looks a lovely horse.
Classic Encounter 11/4 (1pt) – York 3.55
It's definitely not an ideal scenario backing a horse with 10st 4lbs on their back, but I am a big fan of Classic Encounter and I don't think his progression has stopped yet.
I don't understand why it has taken connections of Classic Encounter to put him up to this type of distance. He always hits the crossbar over a mile, but they just kept going back to that trip, and the same comments can be applied. He runs well, becomes outpaced, stays on at the finish, but doesn't have enough track to chase the winner down. Today's race is over 10.5f, which is a trip he has never tried before. Despite him not having experience over this far, and we don't know for certain that he'll stay, his run over 9f would suggest he'll love it.
Another thing to mention is the quality of race. He has been competing in much tougher races than this, so even though he has to shoulder a heavy weight, it's against weaker opposition. Obviously, carrying this weight will make it much closer than I think it should be, but I think he is the best horse in the race.
Due to the top weight, we are going to get a backable price for this horse, which has been rare. Because he is ultra consistent, the bookies price him up accordingly. 3/1 on this lad is more than a fair price, and he might shorten up slightly, into 5/2.
Crepe Suzette 7/2 (1.5pt) – Ascot 3.45
I tipped up Crepe Suzette when she ran at Salisbury one month ago. That race was over 10f, and I did think she was going to be incredibly tough to beat, but she got going far too late. Today, she has an extra two furlongs to run over, and I think that will suit her.
I think there is potential in Crepe Suzette; the problem is she takes a lifetime to get into top gear. Going over a longer trip and running at a stiff track will put much more emphasis on her stamina than the races she has been in. The handicapper gave her a 2lb nudge in the ratings, but a mark of 79 should not be close to her ceiling.
From 8st 3lb, she should be flying under Tyler Heard, and it would not surprise me if she won this quite comfortably. There are a couple of dangers in this race, but they don't have the appealing pedigree of Crepe Suzette.
Spicy Marg 4/1 W/o fav (1pt) – Newmarket 2.25
For the most part, I don't enter the ‘more markets' on betting websites. I like to keep it simple and play win or EW on horses, but I am strong on Venetian Sun winning, but I also like Spicy Marg. I tipped up Spicy Marg at Royal Ascot and she did not look like the same horse who won impressively at Newmarket on debut. She won on the Rowley Mile track, but a return to Newmarket might be able to help her. Venetian Sun was impressive at Royal Ascot, so I am more than happy to play in the ‘without favourite' market.
The other fillies in the race set a decent standard, but Spicy Marg would be around 6/1 if she came to this race on the back of her debut effort. The fact that she was underwhelming at Royal Ascot is definitely playing on people's minds far too much.
GambleAware