Mount Kilimanjaro was well supported at Chester, but only managed to get up in time after being very laboured throughout the race.
Ryan Moore had to be at his brilliant best to get Mount Kilimanjaro over the line, as he was slow as a boat and had plenty of lengths to bridge to win. He was tipped up at 15/8 and went off at EVS, so there was strong support for him, but I don't think he's one of the better horses for Ballydoyle this year.
The Foxes 6/4 – Chester 2.35
It could come back to bite me that I am going against Paddy Twomey with one of his rare runners in the UK, but based on what we know from all the horses in today's race, this might not take a lot of winning and over this trip at this track I was strong on Certain Lad and The Foxes, but opted for the latter due to him having some strong form in the final stages of last flat season and he made an encouraging returning effort a couple of months ago.
Being prominent around Chester is normally the place to be, so being drawn in Stall 1 gives Oisin Murphy a nice opportunity to get a handy position, which will likely be behind Certain Lad, who often front runs. If he does follow Certain Lad, he should get a lovely tow into the race and given he had a race two months ago, he should be somewhat racefit and can pounce late after turning for home.
There are some decent horses in this race, but I have doubts over the trip for Space Legend, the quality of form from Liberty Lane, and the recent well-being of Deepone, which did leave me with two horses, as I did not like the look of Cairo or Bolster. The Foxes is solid over this trip, he has good form in the UK and abroad at this trip, including thumping Dubai Honour, who is a multiple Group 1 winner in Australia. He was 2nd a couple of years ago in a Group 1 in America over today's trip, and in more recent time he recorded an RPR of 118, when finishing 2nd to the globetrotter that is Rebel's Romance in Qatar, finishing ahead of King's Gambit, who was a progressive horse last year.
Caballo De Mar 6/1 (0.5pt EW, 5pl) – Chester 3.05
I was debating whether to go with this horse or not for at least ten minutes, and in the end, I went with my gut.
This doesn't look like a typical Chester Cup, where plenty of horses are in with a chance of winning. Personally, I think this comes down to three or four horses. If Caballo De Mar is as good on turf as he has been on the AW, then I think he will be extremely tough to beat, but with those doubts lingering, I think you can give a chance to Leinster, East India Dock and maybe another horse. However, I think East India Dock won't stay the trip, and I think Leinster is a huge gamble given he has only won over 12f, and this is now an extra 6f, and based on how easy he won last time out, if he prefers a longer trip, he could be 15lbs ahead of the handicapper, but it's all ifs and buts.
I think Caballo De Mar will be fine on turf, as he has run well on it before, and even though you can say he didn't manage to win off a mark in the high 60s on turf, you can counter that with it wasn't over a trip he is best at, but not only that, he has progressed at a rapid rate since. His pedigree suggests he should be fine on grass and should be fine with a fast surface, as his Sire won the Irish 2000 Guineas on good to firm.
He isn't proven over 2m 2f, but given how well he stayed 2m last time, and did his best work at the finish, he is guaranteed to stay. He has only been hit by a 3lb penalty, so is miles ahead of the handicap, and he has a decent draw in Stall 8, so should be able to get a handy position.
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