Mount Tempest didn't put in a vintage performance at Sandown, which was a tad surprising given his previous form at the track over the last season and a half, but with how easily he was beaten there must've been something amiss as he was well out of tune, which is always frustrating when it's your sole play of the day.
Rizzel's tips
Lyrical Genius 2/1 – Fakenham 3.40
I'm acting like Cairnzy by needing to rely on Sean Bowen to bring me a winner for Friday, but whenever he rides for a yard he doesn't ride too often for, it's normally a big eye-opener and a big hint towards a huge run from the horse he is on board. Today, the obscure ride is on Sarah Humphrey's Lyrical Genius who is still a maiden over fences, but is on a very attractive handicap mark and having arguably the best jumps jockey in the UK on board, today could be the day that he ends up in the winner's enclosure.
It is a bit surprising that Sarah hasn't managed to get a win over fences with this horse as her horses tend to improve for the move to the larger obstacles, with Nickle Back being a huge advocate for that (Grade 1 winner), or if you was to simply look at the stats, she is 21% SR with chasers compared to the 10% over hurdles. This horse has been in the top three on eight occasions of the fifteen attempts over fences, so that does make you question his honesty and willingness to win. However, he has been a winner in the past, with his only run in a PTP being a win, and then on his first two starts over rules in bumpers and hurdle races, he won. What was the common denominator for the three wins in a row? The answer is good ground, which is something he hasn't seen a lot of since getting those wins, so maybe the ground is a big part of the reason he hasn't accumulated any further successes.
Today, Fakenham should remain as good ground, which makes the chances of my selection very appealing. His recent form is decent, especially the run over today's C&D and the recent run at Uttoxeter. His handicap mark is now 100, which is a career-low and when you consider he finished a short head runner-up over 3m 2f in January 2023 off a mark of 110, recording an RPR of 122, he is surely on a very dangerous handicap mark. When you tie everything in with Sean Bowen doing the steering, it looks like a potential winning formula. Sean is 2/6 for the yard, which is a decent SR and is 1/2 this season.
Presentandcounting 10/3 – Fakenham 4.40
This is a decent little Hunters' Chase for the finale at Fakenham and it might come back to bite me given there is some decent operators, especially at this level, but I was impressed with Presentandcounting last time around at Catterick and if he can reproduce that level, he could be hard to stop.
Presentandcounting has often been a very good horse on good ground over shorter distances in the past and has been a good horse to follow during the summer months for Donald McCain in the Northern tracks and Scotland. His form has taken a nose dive in recent seasons, but he has been getting older and that does happen to the majority of horses, but last time out at Catterick showed that he still has plenty left to give in the jumps world and I think this race could be set up perfectly for him to land back to back wins.
Fakenham is going to be good ground unless the weather reports are severely wrong, and that is a key for this horse. His stamina hasn't always been assured over 3m, but he proved the doubters wrong at Catterick when he led from start to finish and won by a convincing 18L. On paper, he probably didn't beat much, and usually, I don't pay much attention to the times over the jumps, but he smashed the course record that day and was 8 seconds quicker than standard, so that shows he stays the trip very well on this type of ground. He is a quick horse with good jumping, so Fakenham looks tailor-made for him, especially if they let him dictate on the front end.
Frere D'Armes has won a couple of times for me but has also underperformed for me when tipping him up on this page, but he did win last time out under today's jockey, but I think this is a tougher race and I do see it being hard to look past Presentandcounting. The same comments apply to Bardenstown Lad who was a very useful horse back in the day and is still a good horse, with the jockey booking of Mr E Mahon looking like a strange one as he comes over from Ireland for the one ride.
Gina Andrews is one of the best products from the British PTP scene, she has a ridiculous amount of experience and is one of the best jockeys for the Hunter Chase races, and when you see her record of 2/4 when riding for Donald McCain, it looks like a statement jockey booking.
