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Pontefract’s meeting was abandoned after the third race yesterday, meaning that the Nap was a non-runner. Onto Friday’s action. 

Today’s Nap goes in the first at Wolverhampton, a maiden over seven furlongs. With the Michael Stoute runner Enclosure now a non-runner, the early betting is all about Hock Eye The Noo, who is available at very stingy odds and seemingly has this race to lose. 

However, the strong early support for that one leaves Zizi looking a little generously priced at odds of 5/1 if you ask me. 

Has arguably achieved more than the odds-on fav

Listen, this is a maiden race and we’re talking about hugely inexperienced horses, so anything is possible, but based on what we’ve seen so far, I think a strong case can be made for Zizi being a good bit shorter than the currently available 5/1. 

The filly didn’t show much in a novice race at Newbury in July, but following 62 days off, she showed clear improvement over seven furlongs at Lingfield earlier this month. 

On that occasion, the Richard Hughes runner stayed on from well off the pace to finish a not-far-away fifth, suggesting that she’d have more to give over this sort of distance. 

Now, in that Lingfield race, she finished just half a length behind a runner who finished a length ahead of Hock Eye The Noo next time out. That form doesn’t exactly add up in relation to the early prices here. On that form, the odds-on fav would have to improve beyond Zizi, which she might, sure, but the early prices definitely look out of whack given the evidence. 

If we add in that Richard Hughes is a trainer in red-hot form, one who has a 25% strike rate at this venue in the last year, then it's easy to feel that odds of 5/1 are generous. Such odds should be taken by those eager to taste a slither of value. 

Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£14 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).

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