It wasn’t to be with Wednesday’s Nap, as Tropical Talent failed to seriously fire despite being rather well backed, finishing in a modest third. We move on to Friday’s action.
| Ffos Las - 15:40 |
Take Your Time |
17/2 |
Ahead of Friday’s card at Ffos Las, I’m interested in the 15:40, a Class 3 chase over a near three-mile trip. At odds of 17/2, the Paul Nicholls trained Take Your Time catches the eye.
Sure, this horse didn’t exactly fire on all cylinders at Wincanton when last seen, but he’s been dropped slightly in the weights since then, while he returns to the scene of his last victory. It’s also fair to say that this is a slightly lesser contest, so don’t be too surprised if he takes a step back in the right direction.
Yet to taste defeat at Ffos Las
The gelding returns to Ffos Las having won at this venue back in April of last year, scoring from just 2 lbs lower in the handicap. That was his second win from two runs at the Welsh track, which he clearly likes. He also has his optimum ground conditions, with two of his three previous chase wins coming on ground far from dissimilar to today’s.
It’s also worth mentioning that he’s twice won when ridden by a claimer, which makes today’s booking of Jay Tidball, who takes off a handy 5 lbs, look far from insignificant.
Let’s be honest, we’re not exactly talking about an overly inconsistent Class 3 animal either, with the Nicholls runner winning three of his previous seven starts over fences, placing in one of the other four. You could also argue that this horse has what can be described as his preferred racing conditions today. In all codes, at Class 3 level or less, over trips of three miles and two furlongs or less, he has six wins from 13 runs.
If we look back to November, on his penultimate start, the gelding finished a respectable third (of 9) in a Class 2 at Haydock, doing so from higher in the weights, running as if this slight step down in trip would suit. Let’s face it, that was a much better race than this and if he can show that sort of form here, he’d almost certainly outrun odds of 17/2.
Last but certainly not least, Paul Nicholls has a fabulous record at Ffos Las in the last year, winning with 45.45% of his runners. Combine this with all other positives and odds of 17/2 become worth taking if you ask me.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 103 Naps) has a running P/L of -£48.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
GambleAware