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It wasn’t the worst run from Revolutionise yesterday, and wasn't the first time this week that a big-priced fancy outran sizable odds. No dice from a winning point of view, though, and we move on.
| York - 14:05 |
Pellitory |
9/1 |
Friday Nap goes at York, where ahead of the second race, a valuable Class 2 contest for two-year-olds, Pellitory ticks more than enough boxes to get me interested, especially at early odds of 9/1.
Of course, I could be wrong, but I’m getting in on the action early doors (posting Thursday night) as I won’t be too surprised if there’s a bit of support for this one. 9/1 looks chunky. We’ll see if market support proves that statement to be a correct one or not.
The mount of Tom Eaves goes into this race off the back a decent second at Doncaster last time out, where he looked to be more suited to seven furlongs as opposed to a mile. Perhaps connections agree and that’s why they’ve dropped back down here.
Before that he won nicely over seven-furlongs at Yarmouth, coming with a strong run inside the final furlong to win on easing ground, which bodes well ahead of the forecast conditions at York.
Form of his Yarmouth win working out well
The form of that second at Doncaster last time out hasn’t really been franked yet, but the form of his Yarmouth win looks strong, at least in relation to this contest.
The horse that finished second has since gone on to win, while the horse that finished third has since gone on to finish fifth (of 19) in a red-hot Listed contest.
It’s positive to report that trainer James Owen has been firing in the winners of late. What's more, I use two separate sets of speed ratings and Pellitory rates top of the pile with both, which as far as I’m concerned, is not to be ignored.
Sure, there are plenty with potential in here, while the early favourite Amiloc has every right to be the market leader following a pleasing novice win last time out, but does that mean that Pellitory isn’t a good bet at the prices? Absolutely not.
If you’ve read this column a few times now, you’ll know that I’m certainly not chasing the most likely winners each day, instead aiming to identify decent-priced horses that I see as having a better chance of success than the early betting might lead us to believe. This horse absolutely slots into that category and odds of 9/1 are just too big.
Put it this way, if you’re not only looking for a value bet on Friday afternoon, but looking for a horse that looks to have plenty in favour and ought to run well, then Pellitory is the way to go.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£60.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
3rd at decent price . Do you always just advise win? Suppose it’s up to who follows of want go e/w . Personally I think if 8 runners or more anything over 10/1 worth Ew coz tiny bit of profit