Yesterday’s Nap was a non-runner, with the meeting at Doncaster being abandoned due to the frosty conditions. At the time of writing, Friday’s action is all set to go ahead. Let’s hope it stays that way.
| Bangor 13:42 |
Lilting Verse |
17/2 |
On Friday, my eyes are on Bangor, where ahead of the second race, a Class 4 chase over three miles, Lilting Verse stands out as a viable bet at odds of 17/2, which may just be a tad generous.
Fergal O’Brien’s runner is likely priced as one of the relative outsiders here due to the fact that she’s failed to land a blow in each of her last two races, though we shouldn’t discount the fact that those efforts came in Class 3 company. She’s back down to Class 4 level today.
The mare’s Class 4 record tells us she can get competitive
Prior to her effort at Doncaster in December, when last seen at this level, the mare scored at Huntingdon, winning from 2 lbs lower in the handicap. If we factor in that Fern O’Brien takes off 7 lbs today, then she’s actually better off at the weights than she was for that victory.
This horse is not without a decent performance under today’s claiming jockey either, finishing third when wanting to go further at Ffos Las back in October, running in a slightly better race than this.
O’Brien, who has fired in seven winners in the last fortnight, is not exactly a stranger to delivering the goods at Bangor, winning with 21.13% of his career runners at the Welsh venue, while his win/place strike rate stands at 41.5%. I like those stats.
Two wins from four previous Class 4 runs, never finishing worse than fourth at this level, the mare should have plenty to offer here. At the very least, I think she has more to offer than early odds of 17/2 would have us believe, making her a value bet.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 89 Naps) has a running P/L of -£15.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
