Rizz managed to land a winner on day two of the Cheltenham Festival, with his sole selection Stumptown winning the Cross Country Chase.
Stumptown has progressed massively this term and was priced up as big as 66/1 a while ago for this year's Grand National. His roll of victories has seen his price shorten to 12/1 at the time of writing, but the 12s could prove valuable for a horse who looks as if he could run for days upon end.
Jonbon was my sole selection yesterday, and I, like many, fell victim to another one of Henderson's bankers failing us on the big stage. Bet365 has super-boosted both Constitution Hill and Jonbon this week, and when I see a super boost, I immediately assume my bet is beat. I think to this point, the bookies are rubbing their hands given the amount of bankers failing punters, but we still have two more days to find some more winners, and fingers crossed we can land another on Day 3.
Cairnzy's Tips
Il Est Francais 3/1 – Cheltenham 3.20
This year's Ryanair looks a cracker on paper, and after analysing the field, I finally opted for the French raider Il Est Francais. I'm hoping my selection can upset the apple cart and turnover Fact To File, who looks like the Day 3 banker alongside Teahupoo in the Stayers. As most already know by now, these so-called bankers are beatable, and I think by this stage you are better off taking them on, as backing them these last two days has really not worked out.
The form of Il Est Francais has been typically up and down with form figures of 15-1P2, but in my opinion, he has run his best races on British soil, which includes an 11L thumping to his rivals in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase on Boxing Day 2023 and an unlucky second in the most recent King George which saw him run out of puff in the final furlong to lose by just over 1L to Banbridge. A second-place finish to Banbridge looks one of the best pieces of form on offer, with that one heading to this year's Gold Cup in an attempt to turn over the almighty Galopin Des Champs and is marked up as second favourite for that contest at 9/2 at the time of writing.
My selection was stretched last time out in the King George, but a drop to 2m4f looks like the right move. Il Est Francais can be a quirky sort, which I guess in hindsight is a risky move, but If he shows up on song I do believe he will give you a real run for your money. My selection should go from the front under jockey James Reveley, and the plan is to try to run this field into submission from the front.
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Rizzel's Tips
Sixandahalf 11/4 – Cheltenham 1.20
Willie Mullins used to farm this race when it first came into the Cheltenham Festival programme, winning the first five renewals, but has not had a winner since 2020. The British trainers have had the last three winners of the Mares' Novice race, so it gives hope to those who are fans of Paul Nicholls' pair, of which I think the second string is the interesting runner.
Favourites don't have an excellent record in this race and haven't had a winner since 2018, so you might say that a favourite is due to win this race. I'm not backing Sixandahalf based on the law of averages and the fact that we're due one, but I think she has a superb chance in a race that doesn't look the strongest.
Gavin Cromwell's horse lacks experience over hurdles, as she has only been seen once over the obstacles, but she did win on that sole appearance, and she won in taking fashion. Her jumping looked solid for a very inexperienced horse, and her best jump was arguably at the last when Keith Donoghue booted her into it, so that bodes well for a race of this nature, which will likely be run at a decent gallop.
Even though she lacks experience over hurdles, she definitely does not lack experience as a racehorse. She is a very useful horse on the flat and is currently rated 94 on the level. I think the fact that she has raced a few times on the flat, and noticeably in the Irish Cesarewitch, where she finished 3rd/30 will be key if she was to go on and win today.
She has experienced the hustle and bustle of a big field flat race, so this big field event should not come as a shock to the system. Not only does that race read as good form on the flat, but it shows that she is a very strong stayer, which is not a bad thing to have in your armoury for today's race. To add to this, she was a decent bumper horse, winning a Punchestown bumper last season, so it shows she also has the gears if things get messy.
Walking On Air 10/3 – Cheltenham 5.20
It's a real shame that I missed the boat on Walking On Air as his price has collapsed in the last 24 hours, and I can totally understand why. I saw this horse run 47 days ago in a big pot handicap at Doncaster that I had a selection in and this horse should have won and won well, but he fell at the last when the race was definitely his to win.
This horse has always had plenty of ability, but he hasn't always managed to show it when it matters. He was very well fancied for the Pertemps Final in 2023 and ran a good race in defeat by finishing fifth. He has since gone over fences and has moved from Nicky Henderson's yard to Gary Brown who has managed to find the key to his based on his final start at Doncaster. He has gone up 4lbs for that recent fall, but if that hasn't affected his confidence, I think he is the one to beat in this race over a couple of furlongs further.
I have no doubts about the extra yardage as he didn't get a clear run in the Pertemps a couple of years ago and was staying on nicely up the hill over 3m, so the extra two furlongs he faces is not going to be an issue for him.
Cheltenham Festival 2025 betting guides
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GambleAware
Sine nomine 5-20 Cheltenham 25-1 ew 6 places BETWAY.
(Only firm paying 6 places !!!)
Be some training effort to move on from winning the hunter chase last year to winning a mainstream handicap but if he completes he can go well.
The Bookies are pissing themselves at us this week such is the way things have gone so far, well at least they’re pissing themselves at me anyway. However, I have been right about taking on the shorties, I’ve just picked the wrong ones against them. I really should be just laying them but I hate that lark, I much prefer to try find a winner.
It was very fitting to see both JAZZY MATTY and MARINE NATIONALE win. I did say I would back them and whatever profit I got I would donate to the Injured Jockeys Fund. If I also add the winnings from the trends so far it’s a profit of €143.76. There’s still 2 days to go and that hopefully that figure will increase.
The trends for Day 3 are
BUGISE SEAGULL in the Pertemps
PATH D’OROUX in the Plate
YEAH MAN in the Kim Muir
Thursday is usually the hardest day of the week with 3 h’caps but this year there are 4 with the new Jack Richards H’cap so it will be even harder.
MARES NOVICE HURDLE
I thought SIXANDAHALF was very impressive in winning her maiden. Rated 94 on the flat she powered clear to win by 12 lengths and I backed her for this straight after the race.
However, this race is deep with the likes of GALILEO DAME who being a 4yr old will receive 10lbs from her rivals and wasn’t beaten far by Hello Neighbour at the DRF.
There is also a Mullins lurker in the shape of VENUSIENNE who is already JP owned and he won it in 2019 with another first time runner for the yard with Eglantine Du Seuil, so although I think 6 ½ will win, it’s more in hope than expectation.
JACK RICHARDS H’CAP
One of the new h’caps and it looks very competitive on paper. I’ve gone for NURBURGRING for JOB. He’s in here off 143 which is 7lbs below his Hurdle rating and I’d say this has been the plan for some time.
His last run was back in dec. when he it was pretty obvious he ran with the handbrake on and it was just a run to achieve a mark. He’s been well found in the market as he’s the current fav.
PERTEMPS
I have 2 backed here. FEET OF A DANCER for Paul Nolan who is of a similar profile to Mrs. Milner who won this race in 2021.
Was 3rd in the qualifier in dec. at Leopardstown and 3 of the last 6 winners have come from that race. Has been quietly campaigned and once qualified has been put away. Obviously a max field but I just can’t see her out of the frame.
The other horse I put up a couple of weeks ago and is risky as the trainer couldn’t train a dog to sit in my opinion, but his yard is going well and he carried 12st around Musselborough to finish 2nd in his qualifier but hit the line hard so the trip won’t be a problem.
BUGISE SEAGULL ew at around 28/1 but will probably drift further. He’s also a trend topper.
RYANAIR CHASE
FACT TO FILE without doubt is the one to beat, but he’s very short and should be running in the Gold Cup. IL EST FRANCAIS is a bleeder and the experts are saying that might be ok running on a flat course like Kempton, but on an undulating track like Cheltenham it could find him out.
I think JUNGLE BOOGIE is a cracking ew bet. He may be 11yrs old but he’s only ran 7 times and won 5 of them. He was running a big race in the Gold Cup last year before a mistake 3 out put pay to his chances. He was also looking tired at that stage so the drop back in trip should be ideal. He showed his well being by winning his only start this season at ascot. He jumped out to the right that day so going left handed shouldn’t inconvenience him.
STAYERS HURDLE
TEAHUPOO was my NAP of the meeting last year, but I’m against him this year as he doesn’t have a Flooring Porter in the field to tow him into the race. He’s also better on softer ground and this years renewal has a much younger field than last year.
I really like the chances of LUCKY PLACE who steps up in trip. With the expected slower pace I think he will have the speed to take this. He should also have no problem with the extra distance on breeding.
PLATE
Another very competitive race and you could argue a case for most of the field. I’ve backed MASACCIO and PATH D’OROUX both ew. Masaccio had entries in the Ultima and the Grand Annual but connections decided to go here and Path D’Oroux will hopefully enjoy the step up in trip. JAZZY MATTY winning yesterday has given his form a big boost. He also came out on top of the trends.
KIM MUIR
Again I’ve backed 2 in this aswell. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED for JP Flavin and this is his only runner at the festival. I put him up a while ago so won’t go into it again but the form of his run in the PP Chase couldn’t have worked out any better.
The other is YEAH MAN who was travelling well in the GN Trial at Haydock before a very soft unseat put pay to him. Another trend topper
BOL
5.45 Chelmsford. Hey Boo 3/1
3.20 Cheltenham. Jungle Booogie 12/1 E/W
prices @Ladbrokes. GL 🍀 all & enjoy the racing.👍