Merry Christmas to all on behalf of everyone from MFT. We hope you all enjoyed your time with family and friends and most importantly, raising a glass to those no longer with us.
Rizz is covering the main thread for Boxing Day racing, so I'll be covering the Lucky 15 bet. There are over 80 races on within the UK and Ireland on Boxing Day, so a lucky 15 bet might be the way to go as it gives you an interest for four races rather than backing singles etc. Given the amount of racing on it can be easy to fall into the trap of getting carried away. Always bet with what you can afford to lose and enjoy the day of racing for what it is.
Cairnzy's Lucky 15 Tips
Constitution Hill 11/10 – Kempton 1.55 – Christmas Hurdle- Win Only
The Christmas Hurdle, by far the best race of the day as punters finally get to see the long awaited match up between Nicky Hendersons Constitution Hill and the Willie Mullins trained Lossiemouth.
I mentioned to Rizz a fair while ago that I thought Lossiemouth was a future Champion Hurdle winner, and her performances to date would suggest she has all the credentials to be just that. She has quite a few things going in her favour before locking horns with the Henderson charge. Lossiemouth arrives race fit having ran four times this year already, winner all four outings in impressive fashion. Her most recent success being a Grade 1 hurdle success at Fairyhouse which saw her get the better of Gordon Elliots Teahupoo by three and a quarter lengths. Lossiemouth also has the benefit of the mares allowance, meaning she's 7lb better of than Constitution Hill.
Constitution Hill is the riskier play in this race, and from a punting point of view it may be a tad silly to take on Lossiemouth with Constitution Hill who hasn't been seen since winning this very same race last year. Furthermore, Nicky Henderson has had a nightmare time of late with his superstar, having had to withdraw him from the track due to injury setbacks and a recent gallop showed he was far from his peak as Sir Gino eased alongside him with the minimum of fuss.
I'm not a fan of the Henderson yard and I'm most certainly not a fan of jockey Nico De Boinville but if there's one thing I know about Nicky Henderson, he protects his most valuable assets even under the slightest of niggles or concerns. I don't beleive Constitution Hill would run if Nicky didn't beleive he was back to his best and we can only assume that he is over the already mentioned concerns. I think if CH is back to his best or even 90% of it, then Lossiemouth would have to take another step forward to see him off. I'll take the risk with CH, soley on the back of how this yard tends to operate with their higher end horses.
Spillane's Tower 10/3 – Kempton 2.30 – King George VI Chase – 3 Places
The King George VI Chase, another belter of a contest that promises racing lovers a good spectacle on Boxing Day.
As expected, there are plenty of well known faces in this line up and some at more attractive prices than my selection but I do beleive Spillane's Tower is a worthy favourite for this race.
I was originally tempted by the French raider II Est Francais, who if showing up on form probably wins this contest but he arrives here with some question marks having been pulled up last month at Auteuil. Envoi Allen also tempted me at the prices under jockey Rachel Blackmore and after winning at Grade One contest at Down Royal when upped to 3m, you have to that one is a solid looking each way bet at 11/1.
I finally opted against the pair just mentioned and Spillane's Tower will be by final verdict on this contest. It's hard not to be impressed with Spillane's Tower's progression this term, and three victories and two runner ups in five outings this year has earned him an OR of 165. He went up 10lb from his last outing, finishing half a length down to Fact or File at Punchestown last month. After glancing through the remainder of the fields form, I struggled to find anything close to matching that of my selection and given he is also on the improve, I think we are yet to see the best out of him.
Red Dirt Road 8/1 – Aintree 1.40 3 Places
Plenty in with chances in this contest but one that caught my eye at a more attractive price was the Jonjo O'Neil trained Red Dirt Road.
My selection has shown in the past that he is well worth entitled to a rating of 130 and despite only finishing fifth on seasonal reappearance last month at Carlisle, that run came on the back of over 500 days away from the track over a distance too short. Red Dirt Road did travel well for a long way at Carlisle before fading away to finish a well beaten fifth.
Despite the finishing position looking far from inspiring, I think this lightly raced horse is entitled to come on for the run and should improve massivily for stepping back up in trip. My selection was dropped 2lb by the handicapper for that performance and I don't beleive he has hit his celing just yet.
Country Mile 5/1 – Aintree 1.05 3 Places
It's probably a risky decision to back against Potters Charm, who on paper brings the best form to the table and is very much this one to beat.
My first two selections on my Lucky 15 bet are on the short side so I needed to add something a tad bigger to big it worth while, this is gambling after all…
I was really impressed with the Skeltons runner last time out at Cheltenham, which saw him hose up under a cool ride by Harry Skelton. Harry isn't on board this time around and is replaced by Kielan Woods but I think this improving five-year-old is a worthy alternative in taking on the market principle.
My selection has only been beaten one time in four runs under rules, which saw him finish behind Roadlesstravelled who also contests in this race. I didn't catch that race live but after watching a replay, I'd say he was a tad unlucky to not win that race, with a poor jump at the last costing him the race as the pair dashed for the line.
My selection has seemingly put that performance behind him last time out and 5/1 looks a fair price if you are one for taking on shorter priced favourites.
I do have a selection that is win only due to only four runners so advising each way would be a silly option. So it'll be a straight win lucky 15 advised this time around.
