Justin Gaethje was preparing for a UFC 313 lightweight clash against Dan Hooker. But Hooker had to withdraw because of a hand fracture, and Rafael Fiziev came in as the replacement. Gaethje and Fiziev have traded blows before, and now they are set for a reunion, even though none of them were expecting it. Here’s our Gaethje vs. Fiziev 2 prediction.
Tale of the tape
Gaethje brings a 25-5-0 record to the fight. He has won 20 fights via knockout and four by decision. ‘The Highlight’ also has a solitary submission win against Sam Young.
He enters this fight with a significant experience advantage. Gaethje currently ranks third in the division, but a brutal knockout loss at UFC 300 against Max Holloway has caused skepticism about the current capabilities of the 36-year-old.
The Arizona fighter has lost three of his last six fights. Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, and Holloway have gotten the better of him in recent fights. However, he was able to defeat Michael Chandler, Fiziev, and Dustin Poirier within this window.
On the other hand, Fiziev hasn't fought since September 2023 when he tore his ACL against Mateusz Gamrot. This extended stretch of inactivity combined with the limited time for training for this battle throws doubt on his chances of claiming a redemption victory.
Fiziev is at 12-3 after suffering back-to-back losses to Gaethje and Mateusz Gamrot. He seemed set for a title fight earlier with a six-fight winning streak. The Azerbaijani will look to arrest the slump and get his promising career back on track.
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 2 hot tip: Gaethje to win via KO
The first encounter between these two was incredibly close. Fiziev drew from his Muay Thai arsenal to make life difficult for Gaethje. However, Gaethje was able to neutralise the threat with his superior striking capability.
Fiziev could not survive the sustained pressure Gaethje unleashed on him last time. Of course, that fight took place two years ago and time has taken its toll on the 36-year-old. However, Fiziev will likely struggle to perform at his best so soon after recovering from an ACL injury.
Although Gaethje has been inactive for 11 months, he has been training for a five-round contest against Hooker. Fiziev may have a different fighting style, but Gaethje's recent training will still benefit him in this matchup.
We think the fight has come too soon for Fiziev. He might try to decide the fight early, but might concede early openings for Gaethje to land a decisive strike. This fight should end early and Gaethje should be the one with the raised hands once again.
Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 2: Key stats
- Gaethje is the more explosive fighter between the two with an average fight duration of 10 minutes and 56 seconds. Fiziev’s fights last 41 seconds more on average.
- Gaethje lands 6.78 strikes per minute and Fiziev lands 4.90 strikes per minute.
- Gaethje has a 25% takedown accuracy, while Fiziev has a 40% takedown accuracy.
Fight odds and win probability
Here are the current Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 2 odds:
Justin Gaethje: 5/4 (2.25) – Implied probability 44.44%
Rafael Fiziev: 4/6 (1.67) – Implied probability 59.99%
*Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 2 betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.
Keys to victory
Since we have already seen these two fighters fight each other, we have a better idea about their tactics going into this fight. Gaethje won the first fight, but can he rely on the same strategy to win again? Let’s find out.
Justin Gaethje – controlled aggression
Gaethje says he wants to move away from his more calculated approach. While that could be the ideal move against different opponents, he should stick to his classic philosophy for this one. Patience could be the key to winning this fight.
Fiziev’s gas tank has likely taken a hit after a lengthy injury layoff. Gaethje needs to evade Fiziev’s early attempts to take the game to the ground and make use of the openings he gets. Gaethje should be able to take advantage of a tired Fiziev in the later rounds.
Rafael Fiziev – make use of his speed
Fiziev tormented Gaethje in the first fight with his incredible speed. We are not sure how much hit his agility has taken after the ACL injury, but if he can get his quick feet back and try to force some early takedowns, he might have a shot.
Since Fiziev is fighting this fight on short notice, his conditioning might not be ideal. So, the fight could become more difficult for him as it drags on.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
