The Betting Desk returns with this weekend's Football League tips with match previews for Norwich vs Coventry, Salford vs Crawley and Oxford vs Burton.
Norwich vs Coventry
Norwich started the season slowly as they failed to win in their opening 3 games but were generally the better side in each of them. 1-1 with Wigan saw them win the shot count 18 -5 with the xG 0.7 vs 0.62. They then lost 1-0 to Cardiff despite restricting them to 0.05 xG with just 3 shots and this was followed up by being beaten by Hull 2-1, yet they won the xG 1.86 vs 1.1.
Now the Norfolk side have got into a nice groove, winning their last 4 games, and moved into the top six and just a point behind leaders, Sheff Utd. I have the Canaries in 4th on xPTS. They are 2nd for SOT taken and 5th for non-pen xG, 2nd for SOT ratio and 6th for SIB ratio.
Defensively they still need to improve but they are making good progress as they now sit 5th for XGA and only 4 sides have faced fewer SOT. Their squad is full of exciting players with Josh Sargent now looking good up top with Marcelino Nunez looking very impressive in midfield. Their new players are starting to adjust to life in the championship and with experienced Dean Smith they will go well again this season.
Coventry have been hampered by not being able to play at home for the first few weeks of the season, but I have them 23rd for xPTS, 19th for xG ratio, 18th for SOT ratio, 15th for SIB ratio. 19th for xGA and 18th for SOT conceded. So far this season it's W0-D1-L3 conceding 2 or more in 50% of their games.
Their injury list is growing and confidence low as they sit bottom the of division. City have now scored two or more in three of their last four wins and found the net in each of their last six games. They should at least be able to outfire Coventry and claim the three points.
Norwich win and over 1 goal with Bet365 at 6/5
Salford vs Crawley
Salford finally look like a team we all expected about 3 years ago given the money spent there and manager turnover! So far this term its W4-D1-L1 with the defeat coming on the road at Doncaster with the home record reading W3-D0-L0 scored 6 and conceded 0.
Crawley have had a poor start – W0-D2-L4 with their two draws coming at Harrogate and Rochdale (who sit bottom with 1 point). So far, they have scored just once on the road and twice at home, in the same game. They sit 23rd for xPTS, 23rd for xG ratio with the lowest xG in the division, 23rd for SOT ratio, 24th for shots in the box ratio and 23rd for SOT in the box ratio.
Only Hartlepool average fewer SOT and no side has conceded more SOT.
Crawley are averaging just 2.5 shots in the box per game, the lowest by a distance in the division, whilst Hartlepool are the only side to concede more shots in the box. On the road they have 1.35 xGA.
Crawley have made a few signings late in the window but will only have 24 hours to bed into the squad. Salford have lost top scorer, Asante to WBA, but have signed Ethan Galbraith on loan from Man Utd and Odin Bailey from Birmingham. Bailey spent last season in the Scottish Premiership and looks a decent young player.
Salford are full of confidence and look a good outfit whilst Crawley are struggling for results and performances. Salford win just over 8/11 with Bet365.
Oxford vs Burton
The odds are dropping all week on this bet, so jump on quickly. My private telegram highlighted this bet midweek at odds of even money, but by Friday morning has seen the odds drop to 5/6 on this bet and I suspect it will be closer to 8/11 come kick off, so we are well ahead of the market here.
Oxford have started the season poorly with a record of W2-D1-L3. However, they sit 2nd on xPTS, 3rd on xG ratio, 3rd on SOT ratio and 4th on shots in the box ratio. No side has a lower xGA and no side has conceded fewer SOT. They are playing much better than results suggest.
At home there has been a slightly better return with 4 points from their three games, but again we see that they have won every game on the xG 1.1 v 0.23, 1.95 v 0.48 and 1.85 v 0.67. They have won the collective shot count 51 vs 17, whilst at the other end they have conceded just 4 SOT in 3 games Burton are poor. The fans aren’t happy with the manager and his style of football and that is not helping the players.
The locals won’t have been happy to see that they have just sold top scorer, Gassan Ahadme to Ipswich which won’t help their fight for survival or the mood of the supporters.
Just 1 point from 6 games – a 4-4 draw with Accrington. They have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their 6 games, holding Ipswich to a 1-0 defeat. They have been playing a little better than their points total suggests, but I have them 23rd for xG ratio and 24th for SOT ratio.
They conceded the 2nd most shots in the box on target in the division.
Oxford win and over 1 match goal with Bet365 at 5/6
