Rotherham vs Norwich
Norwich have been a bit of a surprise so far this season with 10 points from their opening four games and scoring 14 goals in the process. The Canaries have scored four at Southampton and four at Huddersfield generating an xG of over 2.0 in both away fixtures. They don’t have many shots, but the shots that they do take are generating a high xG. Jon Rowe had started the season well with a goal in the game, multiple shots and at least one shot on target in each game. With Ashley Barnes leading the line and with the excellent Gabriel Sara in the midfield they look a very solid Championship side.
Rotherham have conceded the most goals in the division and have the highest xGA with 8.1 which is 2.025 per fixture from their four outings. They did ok at home to Leicester last weekend conceding two goals with a xGA of 1.4, but seven shots on target and 11 shots in the box. The hosts look short of quality, and I have them bottom xPTS, non-penalty xG ratio, shots in the box ratio and shot in the box on target plus 23rd for shots on target ratio.
There is a strong possibility that these two sides will end up at different ends of the table come May.
I wanted to back Norwich to score 1.5+ goals and I posted this up in my private telegram group for this week at 4/5 but the odds have now gone so we can back Norwich 1.5+ goals and Norwich to win or draw on the double chance at 4/5 with Bet365.
Crewe vs MK Dons
We managed to back this in my private telegram group at the start of the week at a nice price and the odds have fallen but we can still just about back over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with Bet365.
Crewe have started the season with lots of goals, averaging 3.80 match goals across their five league games to date.
They have scored two goals in four of the five games and conceded 2 or more in four as well. Their only game which fell below 2.5 goals was their 1-0 defeat to Bradford last weekend, where they struggled at little with just 0.56 xG, but they are back at home now where they have found the net in 10 consecutive games, scoring two or more in nine, keeping just three clean sheets.
MK have seen both teams score in four of their five games with over 2.5 goals landing in four as well. The Dons have scored in all five and kept a clean sheet in just one. Their underlying stats haven’t been great for MK, but they have found a way to score Mo Eisa scoring four goals in this first five games this season. With Eisa and Leko up top they have plenty of pace and power to trouble defensives at this level and I can see them causing the Crewe defensive some issues.
Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with Bet365.
Carlisle vs Shrewsbury
Going to take the unders line on this game and it’s another bet that was posted up in my private telegram group at the start of the week and Betfair are still holding firm in the price of 4/5.
The Shrews have averaged just 0.68 xG per game so far this term. No side has had fewer shots in the box and only Cheltenham, who are at the bottom of the table and have failed to score a single goal, have had less shots on target. Defensively, it’s been ok so far with 1.08 xG and only four clubs have conceded fewer shots on target than the visitors. Carlisle are not much better than the Shrews, generating an average of 0.90 xG, conceding on just 0.85 xGA. Only four sides have a lower xGA than Carlisle and they sit 6th for the fewest shots on target conceded. Looking at the underlying stats it’s clear that both sides struggle to create chances and are good defensively.
Jointly there have been 10 games played this season and there has been a total of 16 goals scored – an average of 1.6 goals per game. Both teams have failed to score in five of the 10 and under 2.5 goals had landed in 9 of the 10.
Under 2.5 match goals at 4/5 with Betfair.
